In November 2020, when Individuals final went to the polls to elect a president, it took 4 days after voting closed for Joe Biden to be declared the winner.
This was largely because of razor-thin margins within the essential battleground states, which resulted in some recounts, in addition to giant numbers of mail-in ballots that needed to be counted after election day. There was the added problem of this complete course of being performed amid a worldwide pandemic.
Since then, some states have modified their election legal guidelines to hurry up the election rely. However whereas it could not take as lengthy this time spherical, one factor we may be certain of is {that a} winner won’t be identified on election night time itself.
When do polls open and shut?
There isn’t a set nationwide time for voting to start on the morning of November 5. Most states will start voting at 7am of their native time, with others beginning as early as 5am or as late as 10am. Voting will begin at a wide range of occasions in some states, reminiscent of New Hampshire, Tennessee and Washington the place that is determined by totally different counties or municipalities.
Polls shut at a variety of occasions throughout the nation, too. Voting will finish as early as 6pm US japanese time (11pm GMT) in Indiana and Kentucky, whereas polls in Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, don’t shut till midnight US japanese time (5am GMT).
An early indicator of which candidate is performing higher will come between 7pm and 8pm japanese time (midnight and 1am GMT), when polls shut in the important thing battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina. Each states are aggressive for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and if the previous is said the victor in both, then the competition will pivot in her favour.
The following key second may happen between 8pm and 9pm japanese time (1am and 2am GMT), when voting ends throughout the so-called blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Nonetheless, it’s unlikely {that a} winner can be declared in any of those states straightaway. By 10pm japanese time (3am GMT), polls can have closed in two different vital swing states, Arizona and Nevada.
When will votes be counted?
There are a number of elements that would hinder outcomes being introduced within the hours instantly after voting ends. In Arizona, for instance, state legal guidelines enable voters to drop their accomplished poll papers off on the polling station on election day or the day prior – one thing that not all states do. Nonetheless, these “late early” ballots can’t be processed till after voting ends.
Pennsylvania is arguably probably the most prized swing state that each the Democratic and Republican campaigns are vying for. The state has 19 electoral votes, probably the most of any battleground state, so the victor will in all probability win the electoral school (the group of officers that elects the president primarily based on the vote in every state) and thus additionally the presidency.
Learn extra:
US election: how does the electoral school voting system work?
However Pennsylvania doesn’t enable election employees to course of mail ballots till 7am native time on election day, which may imply the consequence takes longer than 24 hours after polls near be made identified.
That mentioned, Alauna Safarpour, an assistant professor at Pennsylvania’s Gettysburg School, doesn’t assume the wait can be so long as it was 4 years in the past. Writing for The Dialog on October 29, she mentioned that it was “extremely probably” that fewer Pennsylvanians will select to vote by mail this time round.
“A smaller proportion of voters opted to vote by mail within the 2022 midterm election than within the 2020 basic election, and that development is more likely to proceed in 2024”, she says.
Learn extra:
Why Pennsylvania’s election outcomes will take time to rely
Two extra essential states, Michigan and Nevada, have additionally made modifications to the election rely since 2020. These states now allow poll papers to be processed prematurely of polling day. Then again, the flexibility of North Carolina to course of votes forward of the election has been made harder as a result of injury not too long ago brought on by Hurricane Helene. This may occasionally result in additional delays.
In Wisconsin, vote counting in two of the state’s greatest counties – Milwaukee and Dane – can be notably sluggish. Milwaukee and Dane counties are each vital city centres with a mixed inhabitants of round 1.5 million folks. The margin in these counties can be vital to the lead to Wisconsin and the presidential race general.
Will Oliver / EPA
What may delay the outcomes?
There are issues that sure home gamers may search to frustrate and delay election ends in the vital swing states. In January 2020, for instance, numerous Republicans in Congress objected to ends in Pennsylvania and Arizona – states that have been each received by Biden.
And in seven swing states, folks falsely claiming to be members of the electoral school tried to declare Trump because the winner of their state. Their votes have been despatched to Congress to be counted alongside these of the true electors, with some Congress members arguing that the brand new slate of electoral votes solid doubts over the official lead to sure states. In 2023, a Trump marketing campaign lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, pleaded responsible in Georgia to his position in subverting the election.
Norman Eisen, Samara Angel and Clare Boone, who’re all fellows on the Brookings Establishment thinktank, have supplied detailed evaluation on how this state of affairs could possibly be repeated in 2024. They level to nefarious methods that could possibly be utilised to confuse outcomes by refusing to certify elections on the “county stage”.
For instance, three election deniers – Rick Jeffares, Janice Johnston and Janelle King – maintain the steadiness of energy in Georgia’s state election board. They’ve collectively devised new guidelines that enable vote certification to be paused whereas investigations are launched into alleged “irregularities”.
Eisen, Angel and Boone assert that whereas “these makes an attempt will probably meet the identical destiny as prior efforts, they may nonetheless stoke uncertainty and mistrust.” So, given the existence of those threats and the truth that polls present a lifeless warmth, we are going to in all probability not know the election’s winner for no less than just a few days.