UFC 306 predictions -- Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

UFC 306 predictions — Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

Blended martial arts’ largest promotion makes its much-hyped debut on the Sphere in Las Vegas. UFC 306, dubbed Noche UFC, guarantees a visible spectacle honoring Mexican Independence Day weekend and two title fights atop Saturday’s card.

UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley meets prime contender Merab Dvalishvili in a modern-day striker vs. grappler matchup. O’Malley defeated Dvalishvil’s shut pal Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 to turn out to be champ, paving the way in which for Dvalishvili to problem for the title and avenge his teammate.

The co-main occasion sees Mexico’s Alexa Grasso defend her ladies’s flyweight title in a 3rd consecutive combat towards arguably the very best ladies’s 125-pound fighter in historical past, Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso leads the collection 1-0-1 following their most up-to-date bout at Noche UFC final yr, the place a controversial 10-8 rating for Grasso led to a cut up draw.

“It is Noche, however I really feel prefer it’s not that Noche as a result of there are such a lot of substances added. It is UFC 306 and the principle occasion options [fighters from] U.S.A. and Georgia,” Grasso advised CBS Sports activities. “It is Riyadh Season’s first occasion. I truly actually like this concept as a result of with all this displaying of 1 nation’s tradition, it is such a cool factor. I hope sooner or later if it’ll begin with Mexico proper now, possibly sooner or later UFC will do the identical factor for all different nations to embrace their tradition and present the world not solely combating, but additionally convey within the tradition of every nation.”

With a lot occurring on Saturday night time, let’s take a better have a look at the complete combat card with the most recent odds earlier than we get to our employees predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 306 combat card, odds

  • Sean O’Malley (c) -145 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +125, bantamweight title
  • Alexa Grasso (c) -140 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +120, ladies’s flyweight title
  • Diego Lopes -185 vs. Brian Ortega +155, featherweights
  • Daniel Zellhuber -225 vs. Esteban Ribovics +185, lightweights
  • Ronaldo Rodriguez -145 vs. Ode Osbourne +120, flyweights
  • Norma Dumont -115 vs. Irene Aldana -105, ladies’s bantamweights
  • Manuel Torres -125 vs. Igancio Bahamondes +105, lightweights
  • Yazmin Jauregui -500 vs. Ketlen Souza +380, ladies’s strawweights
  • Joshua Van -220 vs. Edgar Chairez +180, flyweights
  • Raul Rosas Jr. -600 vs. Aoriqileng +440, bantamweight

With such an enormous most important occasion on faucet, the crew at CBS Sports activities went forward with predictions and picks for the principle card. Listed here are your choose makers: Brent Brookhouse (Fight sports activities author), Brian Campbell (Fight sports activities author), Shakiel Mahjouri (author), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Clever (senior editor).

UFC 306 picks, predictions

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Dvalsihvili O’Malley O’Malley O’Malley Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Grasso Shevchenko Grasso Shevchenko Grasso
Ortega vs. Lopes Lopes Lopes Ortega Lopes Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics Ribovics Zellhuber Ribovics Zellhuber Zellhuber
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez Rodriguez

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

Campbell: This combat is the proper model distinction in so some ways as Dvalishvili, by way of his spamming wrestling assault that has averaged six takedowns landed per three rounds, will look to place O’Malley routinely on his again whereas the champion will search to make him pay for closing the space by sniping with punches from the skin. Since Dvalishvili’s greatest offense is usually accomplished at shut vary, he’ll must be as accountable as ever in navigating when and find out how to crowd his gifted opponent. He’ll additionally have to make O’Malley pay by way of ground-and-pound all through his time spent on his again. However Dvalishvili would not simply have the very best cardio in UFC, he has an virtually limitless provide. Supplied he is nonetheless standing on the conclusion of 5 rounds, it is a combat that is very winnable for the challenger, who has additionally proven an excessive quantity of recuperative expertise when occasions get furry. 

Brookhouse: Dvalishvili goes for takedowns and would not cease. That is your complete gameplan, and it is spectacular how nicely it really works at a excessive stage. The issue is, I do not consider Dvalishvili goes to have the ability to safe these takedowns ceaselessly sufficient, nor maintain O’Malley on the bottom reliably sufficient to get the win. Dvalishvili has an odd high quality the place he’s ceaselessly harm by strikes however has by no means been completed by them. O’Malley has the talents to alter that each time the combat is on the toes. I do not know that I purchase Dvalishvili successful on the scorecards and the opportunity of a end is nearly solely within the champ’s favor. 

Mahjouri: The champion confirmed unbelievable poise in dethroning Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley annoyed Sterling by heading off takedowns earlier than catching him huge open with a lightning-fast punch. Dvalishili’s smash-mouth model and putting inefficiencies go away him open. If Henry Cejudo can sting him, O’Malley can put him down. “Suga” could have a more durable time with Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling than Sterling’s methodical strategy. The combat would possibly development in Dvalishvili’s favor the longer it goes, however O’Malley isn’t any slouch down the stretch. O’Malley cruised by way of 5 rounds with Marlon Vera and displayed coronary heart by taking Spherical 3 from Petr Yan in a grueling battle. I am going to cautiously aspect with the champ to seek out the knockout inside three rounds.

Grasso vs. Shevchenko

Campbell: If it wasn’t for an errant 10-8 scorecard in Spherical 5 of their rematch final September, Shevchenko would have already been a two-time flyweight champion. However to ask such a fighter, now 36, to attend an extra yr after teaching “The Final Fighter” and defeat a decided champion like Grasso who retains evolving with every efficiency is perhaps an excessive amount of to ask of the all-time nice. Not with this a lot time and tape accessible. It is potential that is why Shevchenko has talked at size main as much as this trilogy about not letting the combat go to the judges. However Grasso’s putting was so efficient within the final combat that it usually turned Shevchenko right into a wrestler. Search for Grasso to outwork the champion over the complete 25 minutes in one other shut and thrilling duel to shut out the rivalry. 

Brookhouse: Shevchenko must be champion proper now however a weird 10-8 rating from one choose within the fifth spherical of the rematch resulted in a cut up draw. I simply cannot shake the sensation that Shevchenko is simply barely higher in a rivalry between two very evenly matched fighters, however I’ve little or no confidence within the choose.

Mahjouri: There’s an argument that Shevchenko is the higher fighter regardless of being winless of their two-fight collection. Much like Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira, it looks like a matter of time earlier than Shevchenko scores. Their age is the distinction maker. Grasso, 32, grew as a fighter between the primary and second fights. Grasso arguably confirmed extra promise drawing Shevchenko within the rematch than she did with an opportunistic submission within the title bid she was dropping. Shevchenko, 36, has additionally been painfully staunch in her perception that she received the second combat and would not have to make modifications. Her repeated dismissiveness in direction of Grasso provides me an excessive amount of pause. I am going to take Grasso by determination.

Clever: Whereas O’Malley deserves respect as champion and somebody who proved in beating Aljamain Sterling that he can forestall the takedowns that make Sterling and Dvalishvili so harmful, I consider within the oddsmakers preliminary learn on this combat. Dvalishvili opened round a -190 favourite earlier than getting guess down all the way in which to a slight underdog on combat day. Betting strains are made to induce two-way motion, which implies that tons of cash has are available on “Suga” right here, but it surely’s among the many most dramatic swings in a line I’ve seen in a title combat like this. Dvalishvili’s world-class stamina and gasoline tank will serve him nicely in dragging O’Malley into deep waters. Whereas Sterling couldn’t safe the takedowns on O’Malley, Dvalishvili is an entire different animal. The Georgian will get it accomplished contained in the Sphere.

Ortega vs. Lopes

Campbell: The distinction between the 2 fighters on this all-action affair largely comes right down to consistency. Lopes, 29, appears to be quickly coming into his peak using a streak of 4 straight wins following a defeat in his UFC debut with stoppages in 5 of his final six wins total. Ortega, in the meantime, by no means fairly leaves you sure whether or not he is coming or going. Though Ortega, 33, snapped an almost two-year layoff in an emotional defeat of Yair Rodriguez in February, he misplaced three of his earlier 4 earlier than that combat and appears to continually be battling accidents. Ortega will probably all the time stay a monster risk on the bottom however would not present sufficient consideration to element because it pertains to protection or head motion to be taken critically as a constant title risk anymore. This has all of the makings to be a breakthrough victory for Lopes, particularly ought to he use his high-pressure offensive model to lure Ortega right into a firefight on the toes. 

Brookhouse: Ortega has a whole lot of miles on his physique and would not combat ceaselessly sufficient to belief him towards a younger, aggressive opponent like Lopes. Ortega additionally has far too many defensive holes in his putting. Lopes’ sport is tailored for opponents that go away openings as huge as Ortega. Dan Ige gave Lopes hell on a number of hours’ discover at UFC 303 however the circumstances of that combat have been so unusual that Lopes ought to in all probability be given a go. Lopes has ready for this breakthrough alternative twice over and he must be able to ship on Saturday.

Mahjouri: That is going to be a lot enjoyable. Each males wield a various arsenal of strikes and submissions, plus a willingness to take harm. It is arduous to evaluate Lopes’ shut combat towards Dan Ige as a result of it was haphazardly booked hours earlier than they fought. Ortega absorbs almost 2.5 extra strikes per minute, however title fights towards featherweight greats Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway closely skew these stats. Lopes has confronted far lesser competitors, but has 10% worse putting and takedown protection. Ortega has taken a whole lot of harm, however he can lean on his expertise to take two rounds from the streaking Lopes.

Who wins UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvil, and which UFC props must you goal? Go to SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Battle Evening, all from the MMA skilled who profited greater than $1,200 on UFC main-card picks, and discover out.