Trump freezes out EU at inauguration

GREETINGS and welcome to Playbook. That is Nick Vinocur. We’ll get into Donald Trump’s inauguration and what it means for Europe, however first a fast replace from Israel, the place a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is now in impact after 15 months of struggle.

Hostage deal: Three hostages — Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher — have been launched and reunited with their households after 471 days of captivity. In the meantime, Israel launched 90 Palestinian prisoners and a whole lot of assist vehicles entered Gaza.

Shaky floor: Nonetheless, the general deal to alternate 33 hostages for greater than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners stays weak. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu burdened over the weekend that the cease-fire is non permanent. “If we should return to preventing, we are going to try this in new, forceful methods,” he mentioned. The Related Press has the newest.

DRIVING THE DAY: TRUMP INAUGURATION

EU SHIVERS AS DONALD TRUMP SWORN IN: Right here we go. At 6 p.m. Brussels time, on what’s forecast to be a bitterly chilly day in Washington, Donald Trump is because of be sworn in because the forty seventh U.S. president.

**A Message from the Coalition for App Equity: The Digital Markets Act will repair the damaged cell app ecosystem, creating alternatives for companies around the globe, not simply in Europe. Robust enforcement is important for shopper selection and developer freedom. Be taught extra.**

Brrrr: Because of the chilly — it’s anticipated to be minus 4C — organizers have moved the ceremony contained in the Capitol constructing to keep away from folks freezing outdoors. It’s the primary time a presidential inauguration can be held indoors since Ronald Reagan started his second time period 40 years in the past. The last-minute change has prompted a scramble to suit a whole lot of dignitaries into the Rotunda for the oath-of-office ceremony. However many loyal Trump followers who’ve traveled to Washington for the inauguration can be not noted within the chilly.

Sneak preview: Trump appeared at a victory rally at a basketball area in Washington final night time that had the texture of one in all his MAGA marketing campaign occasions, in accordance with a write-up by the AP. He promised swift motion on proscribing border crossings, selling oil drilling and eliminating range packages. “We’re going to present them the most effective first day, the largest first week and probably the most extraordinary first 100 days of any presidency in American historical past,” he promised. The Village Folks closed the rally with a rendition of “Y.M.C.A.,” with Trump dancing onstage.

What’s going to Trump say in his inaugural handle? Again in 2017, Trump freaked out lots of his visitors by delivering the now notorious “American Carnage” handle penned by his advisers Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller, prompting George W. Bush to quip: “That was some bizarre shit.” Bannon instructed ABC that his speech this time will strike a much less sinister tone and goal to “deliver the nation collectively.”

Day 1: Trump on Sunday promised to enact “near 100” government orders on his first day again within the Oval Workplace, CNN reported final night time. However for all of the bluster concerning the sweeping adjustments he’s planning, Trump’s advisers are nonetheless debating key facets of lots of his prime insurance policies and there are vital impediments to finishing up his government orders. My U.S. colleagues have a helpful information to main actions anticipated within the early days, together with on immigration, international coverage and commerce.

What’s Europe anticipating? Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to be Germany’s subsequent chancellor, mentioned over the weekend that Trump would deliver “readability” for the EU in addition to numerous challenges. “I believe Trump may be very predictable,” Merz mentioned. However Robert Habeck, Germany’s economic system minister, and the Greens’ lead candidate for chancellor within the Feb. 23 election, warned that Trump’s threatened tariffs would “significantly hit the German economic system.” And Germany’s diplomats are bracing for “most disruption” of democratic norms, in accordance with a confidential memo written by Andreas Michaelis, Germany’s ambassador to the U.S., and obtained by Reuters.

No go zone: What’s clear on the outset of Trump’s second time period is that he isn’t centered on the EU per se. Regardless of invites to the inauguration going out to leaders starting from Xi Jinping to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, not one of the EU’s prime representatives — together with Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa or prime diplomat Kaja Kallas — have been invited. The EU’s consultant to D.C., Jovita Neliupšienė, can be current.

Studying the room: As a substitute, Trumpworld opened its arms to right-wing populist and far-right politicians from Belgium to Portugal. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — a “unbelievable lady,” per Trump — is by far the highest-profile European politician to have confirmed their attendance. (Hungary’s Viktor Orbán gained’t be there, as his workforce mentioned he by no means obtained an invite, and neither will France’s Marine Le Pen.) Learn this for the names of each far-right politician who can be in D.C. at present.

Icy begin: Right here in Brussels, officers are braced for a return to commerce struggle with the US, with a truce on retaliatory tariffs set to run out on the finish of March. “In case issues get nasty, the EU can resort to its rising arsenal of commerce protection instruments,” writes my commerce colleague Camille Gijs. “This commerce ‘bazooka’ could possibly be utilized in response to any risk by Trump to set off tariffs.” Don’t miss our world roundup of how nations from Canada to China are getting ready for relations with Trump 2.0.

Busy sign: The looming commerce struggle …. Europe’s latest exchanges with Trump over Greenland … the absence of EU leaders on the inauguration … all spotlight the disconnect between Trump and the EU institution. Von der Leyen and her prime aide, Björn Siebert, had sturdy ties with President Joe Biden’s administration, significantly with nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan. However these relationships might work in opposition to VDL’s workforce throughout Trump 2.0, because the president shuns Biden-era figures and boosts populists.

Certainly: Prime EU officers are scrambling to determine who to talk to in Trumpworld: “For the time being we try to map out who throughout the White Home and the State Division really has entry to Trump. Folks have an curiosity in speaking up how shut they’re,” mentioned an EU diplomat.

Straightforward does it: For now, the EU is being ultra-cautious, avoiding any large flare-up over Greenland or Elon Musk’s interference in EU politics and taking a slowly-slowly method to imposing digital guidelines in opposition to Large Tech. (It’s the incorrect method to make use of in opposition to “Darwinists” like Trump, Brussels’ former prime diplomat Josep Borrell argued in El Pais over the weekend.)

The underside line: Trump’s inauguration could not function a repeat of the weird “Carnage” spectacle from 2017, however it’s nonetheless filled with peril for the EU. Trump’s allies have made crystal clear whom they take into account to be allies in Europe. The EU has its work reduce out not simply in devising a technique to cope with Trump but in addition in determining how one can talk with the brand new administration.

GERMANY’S EPP TAKEOVER

SCOOP — WEBER TO SEEK REELECTION AFTER PRO-MERZ RALLY: Contemporary off a show of energy in Berlin, European Folks’s Celebration (EPP) chief Manfred Weber plans to hunt reelection as president of the influential center-right celebration, Playbook’s Eddy Wax hears from a well-placed EPP supply.

In search of your assist: Weber (who’s each president of the pan-European celebration and chair of the EPP’s parliamentary group) knowledgeable EPP heavyweights at their leaders’ retreat in Berlin over the weekend of his intention to increase his time as president on the celebration’s congress in Valencia, Spain, in April.

Germany wins: In Berlin on Friday and Saturday, Weber hosted a gathering of center-right titans that included Ursula von der Leyen and the leaders of 9 EU nations. “This was a present for Weber to show that he has the OK of the Germans to run once more as president and that he’s the highest canine in Brussels,” mentioned one other EPP insider.

Pink-tape bonfire: Following the assembly, the Brussels Bubble has been poring over an EPP assertion adopted in Berlin which principally takes an axe to the previous 5 years’ work on the Inexperienced Deal.

A detailed look exhibits the EPP is demanding additional dedication to deregulation, taking goal explicitly on the Company Sustainability Reporting Directive and the Company Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which have been dubbed “extreme and burdensome.” The assertion additionally requires the taxonomy regulation and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to be placed on maintain for at the very least two years whereas rejecting renewable vitality targets, renovation obligations for householders and fines for corporations that fail to achieve 2025 emissions targets.

The place did this come from? The Christian Democratic Union, Merz’s celebration. Per the identical EPP insider, the CDU took management of the assertion and “reminded everyone who’s boss.”

Merz incoming: That could be a tricky tablet to swallow for von der Leyen, who’s ostensibly sure by the EPP assertion. It speaks volumes about how issues are more likely to change in Europe after Germany’s Feb. 23 election, when Merz appears to be like set to turn into probably the most highly effective conservative on the EU leaders’ desk.

ECOFIN

TRUMP CASTS A SHADOW OVER ECOFIN: The EU’s finance ministers will wargame the bloc’s future relations with President-elect Trump over dinner in Brussels whereas his inauguration unfolds in Washington.

“It is a nice event to mirror on this matter,” Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański wrote in a letter inviting fellow ministers to the casual dinner forward of the Financial and Monetary Affairs Council assembly Tuesday. Ministers can be handled to salsify with walnuts and a hollandaise sauce, Polish duck confit parmentier, orange salad and apples. “It’s a Slavic hospitality fest,” mentioned an EU diplomat.

Polish wishlist: “Elevated financial cooperation with the U.S. in vitality, commerce, or protection appears to be value exploring,” Domański wrote within the invitation letter. However a few of his colleagues are more likely to convey a much less pro-American message and demand as a substitute on the EU’s want to chop dependence on Washington, my colleague Gregorio Sorgi writes in to report.

It’s financial safety, silly: Ministers can even brainstorm how one can deliver down vitality costs throughout the bloc, knowledgeable by a report by the IMF’s Alfred Kammer. “We stand no probability competing with the remainder of the world,” Domański wrote within the letter, and breathed new life into the decades-old thought of an “vitality union.” Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko will be a part of his EU friends on Tuesday morning.

**Expertise the POLITICO Davos Celebration On-line. POLITICO’s annual reception within the Swiss Alps is again on January 21. Watch reside as coverage, enterprise and civil society leaders come collectively for networking, drinks and our signature sledge run to Davos Platz. Register now to stream the occasion on-line**

DAVOS

TO THE SKI SLOPES: The annual gathering of the worldwide elite kicks off on the World Financial Discussion board in Davos regardless of being overshadowed by Trump’s inauguration. (He’s on account of handle delegates just about on Thursday). As our personal Suzanne Lynch writes, the Davos set arrives on the Magic Mountain this 12 months with a newfound swagger. Whilst the remainder of the world frets about Trump’s threats of a commerce struggle, Wall Road has by no means had it so good.

Europe’s lose-lose selection: As they head to the Swiss Alps, EU leaders are anxious about Trump’s saber-rattling and their China-reliant economies. Camille Gijs and Giovanna Coi report.

The haves and have-nots: Oxfam revealed its annual Davos report this morning and the outcome ain’t fairly in case you’re not super-rich. Billionaire wealth grew by $2 trillion final 12 months — thrice sooner than the 12 months earlier than. In the meantime, the variety of folks residing in poverty — about 3.5 billion — has barely modified since 1990.

A query of belief: Edelman’s annual belief barometer additionally comprises some warnings for our political leaders. Nearly all of respondents to the annual survey, which charts the extent of belief among the many public for establishments, imagine that authorities and enterprise hurt them and serve slim pursuits — and 4 in 10 approve of hostile activism to result in change.

To comply with all of the information from Davos all through the week, ensure you’re signed as much as International Playbook.

IN OTHER NEWS

TIKTOK (BRIEFLY) GOES DARK: TikTok stopped working within the U.S. late on Saturday, in compliance with a federal ban that the Chinese language-owned platform hopes the incoming administration will rethink. However final night time it was again, restoring entry to American customers hours after President-elect Trump promised to situation an government order that will permit its guardian firm extra time to promote its U.S. operation. The corporate thanked Trump “for offering the required readability and assurance.”

Europe urged to think about ban: After the app briefly went darkish within the U.S., Estonian Overseas Minister Margus Tsahkna mentioned the EU ought to take into account following in Washington’s footsteps and ban TikTok on the Continent. “There’s a respectable concern that the info might find yourself within the fingers of Chinese language authorities, Tsahkna mentioned, pointing to final 12 months’s annual report by the Estonian Overseas Intelligence Service (EFIS) that mentioned the knowledge collected by TikTok could possibly be used for intelligence gathering, blackmail or cyberattacks.

Simply purchase it: The potential sale of TikTok’s U.S. service is an “ideally suited alternative” for the EU to purchase the app, the German Inexperienced MEP Sergei Lagodinsky argued in a paper seen by POLITICO. “The EU Fee ought to instantly set up a public-private partnership consortium geared up with the monetary assets and authorized framework wanted to accumulate current platforms like TikTok,” Lagodinsky wrote.

TRUMP’S “VIETNAM”: Donald Trump is in peril of being sucked into Vladimir Putin’s struggle in Ukraine and it could possibly be simply as damaging to his presidency because the Vietnam Struggle was to Richard Nixon’s, his former chief strategist Steve Bannon mentioned in a wide-ranging interview.

AGENDA

— European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg. Parliament President Roberta Metsola presides over the opening at 5 p.m.; presides over the European Parliament’s Bureau at 6 p.m. MEPs debate the ceasefire in Gaza at 5:30 p.m. … preventing world warming at 6 p.m… advancing the fusion trade for vitality independence and innovation at 7 p.m. Watch.

— Council President António Costa meets Managing Director of the European Stability Mechanism Pierre Gramegna at 10 a.m.; meets Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at 12 a.m.

— Eurogroup assembly. Agenda.

— Italy’s President Giorgia Meloni is in Washington attending U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.

— EU Excessive Consultant Kaja Kallas receives Egypt’s Overseas Minister Badr Abdelatty.

— Finances Commissioner Piotr Serafin meets Spain’s Financial system Minister Carlos Cuerpo; Lithuania’s Finance Minister Rimantas Šadžius; Estonia’s Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi; and Latvia’s Finance Minister Arvils Ašeradens.

— Fee Govt Vice President Stéphane Séjourné meets Jörg Kukies, Germany’s finance minister, at 5:45 p.m.; attends the Ecofin dinner at 7 p.m.

— Fee Govt Vice President Teresa Ribera participates within the Discussion board Europa Brussels Breakfast; and meets Carlos Cuerpo, Spain’s economic system minister.

— Financial system Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis meets Pierre Gramegna, managing director of the European Stability Mechanism; meets Jörg Kukies, Germany’s finance minister.

— Monetary Companies Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque receives Nadia Calviño, president of the European Funding Financial institution; receives Eelco Heinen, the Netherlands’ minister of finance and his Cypriot counterpart Makis Keravnos.

— Protection Commissioner Andrius Kubilius meets with Jorg Kukies, Germany’s finance minister; participates within the assembly of NATO North Atlantic Council.

— Disaster Administration Commissioner Hadja Lahbib is in Turkey, the place she meets Thomas Hans Ossowski, EU ambassador to Türkey; Turkey’s Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Inside Minister Ali Yerlikaya and Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan.

— Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner in Paris, France; meets Bruno Retailleau, France’s inside minister.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: Excessive of 1C, however the solar may make a visitor look.

“CONCLAVE“ AIMS TO BE EUROPE’S “PRE-DAVOS”: After a three-day gathering in Brussels attended by European Council President António Costa, the Conclave summit organized by assume tank EuropaNova will now be held yearly and goals to turn into an everyday stopover for Europe’s elite. “It is going to be a pre-Davos gathering, most certainly in Brussels,” Guillaume Klossa, head of EuropaNova, instructed Playbook.

ECR OPENS UP: The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group chair will handle the information media on Tuesday morning, which different political group leaders typically do throughout Strasbourg’s plenary classes. “It’s a check, let’s see the way it goes, and perhaps we make it everlasting,” ECR spokesperson Michael Strauss instructed my colleague Max Griera.

FOOD REVIEW: Chez Mymy serves contemporary, scrumptious Asian meals in a handy location, writes POLITICO’s Sonya Angelica Diehn.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Kateřina Konečná, Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik, Billy Kelleher and Malik Azmani; economist Peter Praet; former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley; EEAS’s Tony Agotha; Queen Mathilde of Belgium; former Ukrainian PM Volodymyr Groysman; ICF’s Adrien Borisavljević; journalist Joan Tilouine; Israeli politician Natan Sharansky; astronaut Buzz Aldrin.

THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Dean Southwell.

**A Message from the Coalition for App Equity: Enforcement of the Digital Markets Act will profit numerous companies in Europe and around the globe. Ending Apple and Google’s stranglehold over the cell app economic system will give European customers the selection to obtain apps the place they need, and pay for digital items and companies how they need. By bringing freedom to the app shops, the EU will unleash innovation, drive down costs, and defend customers from cell app monopolists. Enforcement advantages all Europeans, and can empower companies from around the globe to compete pretty. Be taught extra about why this issues.**

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Trump freezes out EU at inauguration – POLITICO