It’s worthwhile attempting to think about what might need occurred had Donald Trump been shot and killed after enjoying the fifth gap at his Florida golf course on the weekend. Although many individuals would possibly like to see the again of an obnoxious man who incited others to violence, this weekend’s incident has prompted requires tighter safety across the former president and weighty condemnation from his rival Kamala Harris, who says she is “deeply disturbed” by the obvious assassination try and tweeted: “I’m glad he’s protected. Violence has no place in America.”

But, with this, the second mortal risk, hypothesis is inevitable. And, paradoxically, Trump lifeless may very well be much more harmful than Trump alive.

Trump’s killing can be a private tragedy – primarily for him and his household. It might mark the top of a rare, tumultuous, at all times polarising political profession. It might add his title, undeservedly, to an honoured checklist of assassinated US presidents that features John F Kennedy and Abraham Lincoln.

However excess of that, Trump’s dying by the hands of a lone would-be sniper (as reportedly practically occurred on Sunday) would have thrown US politics and the November presidential election into utter confusion. His sudden passing would create an unprecedented, definitely unpredictable and presumably anarchic political vacuum at dwelling and overseas.

Just a few international governments – Iran involves thoughts – would welcome his elimination and search to make the most of the following uncertainty. But the Russian and Chinese language dictators, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, wouldn’t essentially be amongst them. They regard Trump as a “helpful fool”, within the phrases of his former nationwide safety adviser, John Bolton – a shallow man simply flattered and manipulated. In any case, each Putin and Xi are understandably against assassinating dictators. They’d miss him.

A post-Trump world may look very completely different. The alleged would-be murderer in Florida reportedly held robust pro-Ukraine views and had lobbied and travelled to the nation to precise his help for its resistance to Russia’s unlawful invasion. It’s no secret that Ukraine’s embattled authorities fears a second Trump time period might imply the top of US army and monetary help, and an enforced, unequal settlement with Moscow. A Kamala Harris presidency, in distinction, guarantees a continuation of Joe Biden’s coverage of cautious help. Few can be so vulgar as to say so, however Trump’s abrupt departure may be a aid to Kyiv.

Equally, politicians throughout Europe, not least in Britain, would possibly privately be happy if hostile, xenophobic Trump have been not round to hurl insults throughout the Atlantic, remind them of damaged guarantees on defence and safety – and disrupt western coverage, from Gaza to the local weather disaster.

However it’s at dwelling that Trump’s sudden demise would most powerfully be felt. He would inevitably be forged as a martyr by his Make America Nice Once more followers and their media boosters. They’d most likely declare, as occurred after July’s failed assassination try in Pennsylvania, that the Biden administration and the Democrats have been one way or the other a part of a plot to kill him. Though Trump survived on Sunday, that is already occurring once more. Would possibly violent dysfunction have ensued, had Trump died? It appears possible.

The affect on a US election already upended by Biden’s late resolution to give up the race would even be stupendous. There can be calls to postpone the vote. Constitutionally, that’s a tricky, maybe not possible, name. Extra most likely, maybe, the Republicans, just like the Democrats in the summertime, would flip, in extremis, to the quantity two on the ticket – their vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance. How scary that might be!

No less than Trump is a recognized amount. Vance is equally “bizarre”, as Harris’s operating mate, Tim Walz, says, however he’s a darkish horse with extremely objectionable views of his personal, notably about ladies’s roles. Vance in search of the presidency, milking the sympathy vote for his late lamented grasp, may be a good worse nightmare for Harris. Trump’s hopefully hyperbolic vows to penalise his enemies, ought to he be re-elected, would possibly finally seem delicate as compared with a President Vance vengefully victimising democracy itself to be able to settle scores with all who oppose his hand-me-down Trumpism.

For a lot of ethical and different sensible causes, it’s simply as properly Trump wasn’t harmed in Florida. Far preferable, and safer for the battered reason for common democracy and human rights, to shoot him down figuratively on the poll field. Much better for a wholesome, practical society that his arguments (comparable to they’re), his gross prejudices and wild-eyed bigotry be publicly, firmly rejected for all to see. It’s extra essential to discredit and extirpate this model of evil than to destroy its chief advocate in individual.

Trump belongs in jail, not within the floor, and if Harris prevails in November, it’s extra attainable that’s the place he’ll find yourself. In the meantime, the US authorities, the FBI, the Secret Service and the remainder of the “regulation enforcement group” should strive to make sure the reviving US penchant for political assassination doesn’t speed up. There are actual, justified fears now for the security not solely of Trump and Vance but additionally for Harris, Biden and Walz – all distinguished potential copycat targets in a society sick with gun violence, schism and hate.

That is the broader risk highlighted by the Florida golf course drama. Russian, Iranian and North Korean hackers can do their worst. On-line social media disinformation is a big downside. So, too, is vote suppression, as is native and state-level election interference by Trump’s misguided backers. However extra worrying, extra scary than all of that, is the prospect of the US’s system of consultant authorities, nonetheless regardless of the whole lot a shining instance to the world, being delivered to its knees by gun-toting crazies, coup plotters and the violent use of pressure.

Attempting to kill Trump quantities to a lot the identical as attempting to kill democracy. Like a rat in a lure or a toad in a gap, it’s greatest to maintain him alive and kicking – till he’s politically put down.

• Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s international affairs commentator

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