Extreme turbulence struck a Singapore Airways flight from London Heathrow earlier right this moment, with one man killed and plenty of others “launched into the ceiling”.

Authorities imagine a 73-year-old British man, who had a coronary heart situation, possible died from cardiac arrest, with no less than 30 others injured on account of the turbulence.

Deaths from turbulence are extraordinarily uncommon, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) stated 146 passengers and crew have been significantly injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.

Learn extra:
Photographs present harm in aircraft after one killed in turbulence

However what may have prompted the incident, what varieties of turbulence exist, and are the occasions getting worse? Here is what specialists have stated to this point:

What does the flight knowledge present?

Flight knowledge reveals a spike in altitude of round 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm native time. Shortly after, the aircraft returned to a cruising altitude of round 37,000ft (11,277m).

In accordance with Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a fast change in vertical fee, according to a sudden turbulence occasion”.

At 3.03pm native time, the flight modified course and started its diversion to Bangkok.

Round 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – earlier than touchdown in Bangkok at 3.45pm.

What may have prompted the turbulence?

Tim Atkinson, an aviation guide and pilot, informed the Sky Information Each day podcast he believes “it is pretty clear” the Singapore Airways flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.

He famous that the world – referred to as the Intertropical Convergence Zone – the place the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 ft is “famend amongst pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.

“Regardless of considerable warning often, there’s turbulence forward which might’t be recognized, and the unlucky results of an encounter is damage and, very hardly ever, fatality,” he stated.

Mr Atkinson additionally famous that the bigger the plane, “the more serious the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption within the smoothness of the ambiance, must be to trigger main issues”.

He then stated the 777 is “one of many largest and, I daresay, most strong airframes broadly flying world wide”.

What varieties of turbulence are there?

Sky Information’ climate producer Jo Robinson notes there are a couple of types of turbulence – the place there is a sudden change in airflow and wind velocity.

Turbulence can typically be related to storm clouds, that are normally properly forecast and monitored, permitting planes to fly round them.

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is rather more harmful as there are not any visible indicators, equivalent to clouds.

This invisible vertical air motion normally happens at and above 15,000ft and is usually linked to the jet stream.

There are clues on the place CAT might happen, however typically it may possibly’t be detected forward of time, which implies flight crews could be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt indicators on.

It’s unclear what kind of turbulence the Singapore Airways flight went via.

How frequent is an incident like this?

Chris McGee, a industrial pilot for greater than 20 years, stated in her expertise the aircraft did encounter CAT which is “nearly inconceivable to foretell” and comes “out of the blue”.

Ms McGee stated turbulence shouldn’t be the truth is that uncommon, however to expertise it to this diploma is “phenomenally uncommon”.

“In my profession I’ve skilled one incident of extreme turbulence,” she stated, including that she has heard of perhaps “two, probably three incidents of one thing that excessive” from fellow pilots.

The reported 6,000-ft drop in underneath 5 minutes is sort of regular in a managed descent instigated by the pilot, she stated.

Nonetheless, what they skilled was not a pleasant clean, managed descent, however an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself round everywhere in the sky”.

“It is terrible what occurred to these on board, one loss of life is tragic, different folks have been injured, however one thing like that’s extremely uncommon,” she stated.

“We do prepare within the simulator each six months no less than the place we practicse issues we won’t practise in the actual aeroplane. Issues like emergency procedures, abnormalities and weird climate circumstances like this, for instance.

“We’re taught tips on how to fly the aeroplane via these excessive occasions and tips on how to recuperate them ought to the aircraft depart from its regular flight mode.”

Her greatest recommendation for any passengers involved about their security on the flight is to comply with what the cabin crew “strongly counsel and maintain their seatbelts loosely tied always. On the flight deck that is what we do. It is going to defend you”.

Is turbulence getting worse?

It has been understood for a while that local weather change is rising turbulence throughout flights, and the development is about to worsen based on experiences.

In June final 12 months, a examine from Studying College discovered that in a typical spot within the North Atlantic – one of many world’s busiest routes – the entire annual period of extreme turbulence elevated by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.

Reasonable turbulence was additionally discovered to have elevated by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light-weight turbulence elevated by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.

Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the examine, stated on the time: “My message from that is we have to do one thing in any other case flights will turn out to be extra turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”

Professor Paul Roundy, from the College of Albany, stated on X on Tuesday that the 55% enhance in “a really rare sign offers an actual, however small, change in absolute threat”.

He famous that “it isn’t one thing a randomly chosen passenger ought to fear about,” earlier than including: “Airline journey of the longer term will not be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have 1000’s of lifeless or injured passengers.

“It is going to principally seem like it does right this moment.”