As Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder followers flood into Paycom Middle tonight, a Spherical 2 sequence in opposition to the Dallas Mavericks is ready to happen. After turning into the youngest workforce in NBA historical past to win a playoff sequence, the Thunder can be taking part in a second-round sequence in entrance of its house crowd in OKC for the primary time since 2016.

Given Oklahoma Metropolis swept the New Orleans Pelicans within the opening spherical, this can be simply the third house recreation of the playoffs for the Thunder. It’s essential that this younger workforce will get off to a scorching begin on this sequence, because the Mavericks have the star expertise to benefit from inexperience.

Whereas these groups performed 4 instances this season — with OKC popping out on prime in three of them — these contests don’t present a lot context into how these two groups may match up on this sequence. For starters, Dallas has a very completely different rotation than it did for the primary two video games within the season following a pair of trades on the deadline.

Moreover, one of many two matchups following these acquisitions got here on the final day of the common season when the Mavericks sat practically each rotational piece. Dallas defeated the Thunder by 35 within the one contest by which each squads had been shut to completely wholesome, but it surely was the primary contest following the NBA All-Star break and was an unorthodox recreation.

As such, there’s a lot uncertainty because the Thunder and Mavericks kick off a seven-game sequence. Even then, there are nonetheless projections that may be made primarily based on workforce tendencies and the way the person gamers have fared in opposition to different competitors throughout the closing stretch of the common season and into the playoffs.

As this sequence unfolds, what are a few of the key components that might in the end make the distinction in who comes out on prime?

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Well being of Luka Doncic

All through the Mavericks’ first-round sequence in opposition to the LA Clippers, Luka Doncic was taking part in by a knee damage. Whereas he was capable of take the ground in all six contests, he didn’t appear to be himself. Doncic averaged 29.8 factors per recreation, however shot simply 40.5% from the ground and 23.9% from past the arc.

Fortunately in that sequence, Kyrie Irving was capable of take over and rating a particularly environment friendly 26.5 factors per contest on 51.4/44.9/85.2 splits. On this Spherical 2 sequence in opposition to the Thunder, the well being of Doncic and the way his knee feels will play a big function. If he will get again to his typical scoring effectivity whereas Irving maintains his stage of play, this might be a protracted sequence for the Thunder protection.

Middle Rotations

Not like Oklahoma Metropolis’s opening matchup in opposition to the Pelicans, the Mavericks have fairly a couple of choices at middle. New Orleans was primarily restricted to taking part in huge with Jonas Valanciunas or small with Larry Nance Jr. at this place all through the sequence. Though Dallas can be with out Maxi Kleber attributable to damage, the Mavericks have a dynamic rotation of bigs that includes Daniel Gafford and Dereck Full of life II, together with Dwight Powell.

If these extra conventional facilities for no matter purpose aren’t working on this matchup or the Mavs must shake issues up within the movement of a recreation, don’t be stunned to see fairly a little bit of PJ Washington at middle in small-ball lineups. Moreover, Markieff Morris hasn’t been within the common rotation however is an alternative choice for Mavericks coach Jason Kidd to work with.

For Oklahoma Metropolis, Chet Holmgren will play a big function as the first middle, however the workforce can even need to be strategic in who else performs in that spot alongside or behind him. Jaylin Williams proved to be a high quality contributor within the opening spherical along with his measurement, physicality and flooring spacing, however on this matchup in opposition to Dallas, Kenrich Williams might be known as upon after not taking part in a lot in opposition to New Orleans. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault additionally has Mike Muscala and Bismack Biyombo rounding out middle choices off the bench.

Decide and Roll Success

Like lots of the greatest groups within the NBA, each of those squads have the items to be efficient in decide and roll situations on the offensive finish. Whether or not it’s Doncic or Irving with the ball of their fingers, Full of life and Gafford are each stable screeners and vertical spacers who pose a lob risk. Oklahoma Metropolis’s means to defend the decide and roll and combat by screens normally can be essential on this sequence. Not solely does the Thunder need to defend the curler, but additionally the guard initiator.

On the opposite aspect of the ground, the Thunder has seen success with each Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe as screeners within the decide and roll. They’re each efficient in popping fairly than rolling, which forces the protection to both decide to the handler — typically Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams — or enable a high quality 3-point shooter to get an open look on the perimeter. Holmgren’s effectiveness popping after screening for a guard was an enormous purpose that the Pelicans needed to go small at middle in Spherical 1.

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The winner of this sequence will transfer on to play both the Denver Nuggets or Minnesota Timberwolves within the Western Convention Finals, relying on who comes out on prime in that sequence. Within the meantime, count on this sequence between the Thunder and Mavericks to be one of the entertaining throughout the league over the subsequent two weeks.