Israel-Hamas war: Why Hezbollah is threatening Cyprus

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In a fiery speech this week, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah singled out close by Cyprus, threatening to focus on the small, divided Mediterranean island if it aids Israel in a possible warfare between the Lebanese militant group and Israel.

“Cyprus can be a part of this warfare too” if it opens its airports and bases to Israeli forces, the chief of the Iran-backed militant group mentioned in a televised speech Wednesday, a day after Israel warned that the prospect of “all-out warfare” in Lebanon was “getting very shut.”

Responding to the feedback, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides denied being concerned within the warfare.

“The statements will not be nice, however they don’t correspond in any approach to what’s being tried, to current a picture that Cyprus is concerned within the warfare operations. Under no circumstances in any way,” he mentioned, including that strains of communication are open with the Lebanese and Iranian governments.

The European Union on Thursday got here to Cyprus’ protection, saying that because the island “is a member state of the EU, this implies the EU is Cyprus and Cyprus is the EU.”

“Any risk in opposition to considered one of our member states is a risk in opposition to the EU,” Peter Stano, an EU spokesperson, informed reporters.

Neighboring Greece additionally expressed its “undivided solidarity” with Cyprus, saying on X that “the risk to make use of pressure is a flagrant violation of the United Nations Constitution.”

In an obvious try to manage the harm, Lebanon’s Overseas Minister Abdallah Bou Habib referred to as his Cypriot counterpart, Constantinos Kombos, expressing Lebanon’s “continued reliance on the optimistic position performed by Cyprus in supporting stability within the area,” in line with Lebanese state media.

Whereas specialists say warfare between Israel and Hezbollah stays unlikely, the very point out of Cyprus provides a brand new dimension to the Israel-Hamas battle in Gaza. It dangers drawing an EU nation right into a warfare that has already unfold throughout the Center East and places the highlight on Cyprus’s ties with Israel.

Right here’s what we all know.

An island within the Jap Mediterranean positioned on a geopolitical fault line between the Center East and southern Europe, Cyprus is geographically a lot nearer to the conflicts within the Center East than it’s to European energy facilities.

The island is twice the dimensions of the US state of Delaware, and it’s cut up into two elements: a Greek-speaking southern half referred to as the Republic of Cyprus, and a Turkish-speaking area referred to as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The island’s divide displays the rivalry between regional foes Greece and Turkey. Many of the worldwide neighborhood solely acknowledges the sovereignty of the Greek a part of Cyprus, and that was the nation Nasrallah’s threats have been directed at.

The Republic of Cyprus is a member of the EU however not of the NATO protection alliance that obliges member nations to return to one another’s protection in case of assault. It’s dwelling to  round 920,000 folks, with Nicosia as its capital.

Diplomatic relations between Cyprus and Israel began in 1960, following the island’s independence from British colonial rule, however Cyprus didn’t open an embassy in Tel Aviv till 1994. Relations went bitter within the Eighties and Nineties over points together with Israel’s shut ties with Turkey and the Arab-Israeli battle, through which Cyprus sided with Arab states and supported Palestinian statehood.

Ties bounced again within the late Nineties and 2000s, as Israel started turning to the Jap Mediterranean for financial partnerships, particularly after the invention of pure fuel within the area. Specialists say Israel has additionally seemed to Cyprus as a accomplice to thwart regional threats, significantly from Turkey and Iran-linked teams.

Israel has lately used Cypriot territory to coach its troops on doable warfare with Hezbollah. Cyprus’ terrain is just like that of Lebanon, the Israel Protection Forces (IDF) has mentioned, in line with Israeli media.

In 2022, the IDF performed a joint navy drill with Cypriot forces. A few of the joint coaching targeted on preventing a number of fronts and specializing in battling Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli media reported. Their newest workouts have been performed in Might 2023 in Cyprus.

The Cypriot presidency mentioned on X on Thursday that the nation “has by no means facilitated and won’t facilitate any aggressive motion or assault in opposition to any nation.”

Cyprus has been eager to dispel any strategies that it’s implicated within the Gaza warfare, noting its humanitarian efforts that helped carry some support into Gaza.

“The Republic of Cyprus isn’t a part of the issue. The Republic of Cyprus is a part of the answer,” mentioned Christodoulides, the president. “And our position on this, as demonstrated, for instance, by the humanitarian hall, is acknowledged not solely by the Arab world however by the worldwide neighborhood as an entire.”

In March, Cyprus started permitting support ships to sail from its ports as a part of worldwide efforts to create a humanitarian support route through sea towards Gaza.

The primary maritime cargo to Gaza carried 200 tons of meals, which equates to roughly 500,000 meals. An EU logistics hub was additionally arrange in Cyprus to facilitate the circulate of support into Gaza.

Nicosia has criticized a few of Israel’s actions in Gaza, particularly people who have hampered the supply of humanitarian support.

In April, it issued a joint assertion with the UAE, condemning the lethal Israeli assault on the World Central Kitchen charity group that killed seven folks.

It has additionally repeatedly condemned Hamas for its October 7 assault on Israel.

The island has beforehand been caught within the crossfire of regional conflicts, a reminder of its proximity to the risky Center East. In 2019, a suspected Russian-made missile exploded over the area of northern Cyprus. Cypriot officers believed the missile was linked to navy operations in Syria, saying it landed lower than 15 (24km) miles north of the capital Nicosia.

A state of affairs through which Israel makes use of Cypriot bases for its navy forces, which Hezbollah warned in opposition to, would “successfully develop Gaza warfare into the European Union,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iran analyst and editor of Amwaj.media, wrote on X.

It could imply that an EU nation is, for the primary time, immediately concerned in an expanded Gaza warfare.

Some specialists say that the prospect of the Israel-Hezbollah battle breaking out into an all- out warfare is unlikely, nevertheless, as neither aspect need such an escalation.

“Hezbollah’s launch of drone footage of delicate positions inside Israel is supposed as a deterrent to Israel,” Lina Khatib, affiliate fellow within the Center East and North Africa Programme on the Chatham Home suppose tank in London, informed CNN, referring to the 9-minute drone video launched by Hezbollah on Tuesday, displaying civilian and navy places in and across the Israeli metropolis Haifa.

“It’s regular for each Israel and Hezbollah to have navy plans in place for dealing with a possible escalation. However as issues stand, neither Israel nor Hezbollah advantages from all-out warfare,” Khatib mentioned, including that “Hezbollah is aware of that warfare with Israel can be devastating for Lebanon and that there isn’t any common urge for food for such a state of affairs within the nation.”

The Biden administration can be unlikely to let Israel struggle a two-front warfare by itself, she mentioned, including that US involvement could pull in “different Iran-backed actors in addition to the potential for Iran itself to be focused.”

“This can be a excessive price that Iran needs to keep away from paying,” she mentioned. “The US additionally doesn’t wish to discover itself in one other Center East quagmire, particularly with presidential elections looming.”