Right here at NPR, we depend on the Related Press for our election outcomes. The information company does not make projections, however quite declarations based mostly on math.

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

Someday quickly, America will know who its subsequent president will probably be. However between every now and then, ballot employees in every of the 50 states will probably be counting the ballots solid for former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Tv networks might name states for every candidate effectively earlier than the election outcomes are ultimate, however right here at NPR, we depend on The Related Press for our outcomes. Becoming a member of us now to speak about why we use the AP and the way that course of is totally different is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hey, Domenico.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey – nice to be with you.

CHANG: Nice to have you ever. OK, so simply first clarify. Remind listeners why NPR depends on the Related Press to make calls on races.

MONTANARO: Yeah. The AP has an extended historical past of offering election outcomes and making calls. We do not have a call desk with statisticians right here just like the AP or different TV networks, so NPR will not be making calls, however we are going to report and comply with what the AP does. So while you hear calls which might be made on the air, we’ll all the time attribute them to the AP. Our editors are and will probably be in direct communication with the AP. And dwell outcomes will probably be up to date on-line and can come instantly from the AP. Test marks in our on-line outcomes graphics, for instance, will probably be robotically up to date when AP makes a name, and we’ll mirror that in our tales and on the air whereas all the time attributing to the AP.

CHANG: And simply to remind everybody, the AP’s calls are sometimes slower than these made by the TV networks like NBC, CNN and Fox. Why is that?

MONTANARO: The AP does not make projections. They make calls, they are saying – , declarations. AP needs to be quick, however in addition they need to make certain. So the AP does not say somebody has received a race till they’re practically 100% sure {that a} trailing candidate cannot catch as much as the chief based mostly on the maths. , they do that by taking a look at a number of information factors – , the historical past of a state, superior vote information like early voting, in addition to their preelection surveys which have about 4,000 individuals per state – that is far more than we often see – and precise votes which might be solid, particularly these in key precincts.

CHANG: Proper. OK, and while you say, Domenico, that they do not make projections, that they make calls as a substitute, are you able to simply clarify extra concerning the distinction between the 2?

MONTANARO: Yeah. They will say based mostly on the info, this individual or that individual has received and that the opposite candidate doesn’t have a path left to win. So it is a method of them making it aware for themselves, for his or her entire group, that they need to be completely certain and never getting out over their skis, basing an excessive amount of on, say, exit polls or fashions or their entrance polls, , the way in which others may do with the exit polls on the networks, pretty much as good as these do are usually.

CHANG: And is there a scenario the place NPR may disagree with the AP’s name?

MONTANARO: Possibly, however could be very, very excessive and uncommon. , information management right here does reserve the correct to void a name, however that might solely be thought-about in excessive circumstances, in session with NPR requirements group and others. I’d not count on that to occur. We have by no means performed that earlier than. Like I mentioned, we do not have a group of statisticians right here, so it is best to depend on the specialists.

, there are more likely to be shut calls, in fact. , in 2020, AP received method out forward of others in calling Arizona for Joe Biden. They decided that even when every thing had damaged Trump’s method, he would nonetheless lose by some 10,000 votes. Nicely, every thing did break his method, and he misplaced by some 10,000 votes. In order that they had been in the end confirmed right, however not with out some heavy beads of sweat on rather a lot…

CHANG: (Laughter).

MONTANARO: …Of individuals’s foreheads.

CHANG: OK, so the million-dollar query – when is the AP seemingly going to name the presidential race, you suppose?

MONTANARO: It is going to rely on the margins. I imply, it is potential that the race is known as within the wee hours of the morning Wednesday, however provided that the margins are extensive sufficient. I imply, bear in mind in 2020, the presidential election wasn’t known as till Saturday…

CHANG: Proper.

MONTANARO: …After Election Day due to how shut locations like Arizona and Georgia had been. This time, it could possibly be Pennsylvania that we’re all ready for. We do count on a name for the Senate someday after midnight Japanese time, doubtlessly as a result of Republicans are favored to win there. The Home, do not count on to name for it this week. , there are simply too many shut races. That is all regular, occurs each election, regardless of those that may prematurely declare victory.

CHANG: That’s NPR’s Domenico Montanaro. Thanks, Domenico.

MONTANARO: You bought it.

Copyright © 2024 NPR. All rights reserved. Go to our web site phrases of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for additional data.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This textual content might not be in its ultimate type and could also be up to date or revised sooner or later. Accuracy and availability might fluctuate. The authoritative report of NPR’s programming is the audio report.