On Friday night time, the Mountain West Convention takes middle stage because the 6-1 UNLV Rebels host the 5-1 Boise State Broncos in a sport with monumental implications for the School Soccer Playoff.
Boise State holds a 4-0 all-time benefit over UNLV, together with a 44-20 win within the Mountain West Championship final season.
Operating again Ashton Jeanty is the headliner on this huge matchup, however we’ve our eyes on one other talent participant on this sport whose props maintain loads of worth.
Right here’s a breakdown of Friday night time’s bout between Boise State and UNLV, together with a prediction and greatest guess.
Boise State vs. UNLV odds
| Crew | Unfold | Moneyline | Whole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | -3.5 (-105) | -165 | o64 (-110) |
| UNLV | +3.5 (-115) | +140 | u64 (-110) |
When Boise State has the ball
Jeanty has set the faculty soccer world on hearth this season, speeding for 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns in simply six video games. That places him on tempo to interrupt Barry Sanders’ information, which have stood for 36 years.
He’s tied for first on this week’s Heisman betting odds with Miami’s Cam Ward (+200, FanDuel), and this sport will present an amazing alternative to showcase his abilities.
UNLV has been respectable in opposition to the run, permitting simply 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks twenty fifth within the nation. Linebacker Jackson Woodard, the favourite for the MWC Defensive Participant of the Yr award, is the Rebels’ main tackler (63 whole, 8.5 tackles for loss).
Nonetheless, Jeanty was dominant in that matchup final yr, speeding 21 occasions for 153 yards and a landing, and the Rebels allowed greater than 300 whole speeding yards for the sport.
If defensive coordinator Barry Odom can discover a option to at the least decelerate Jeanty on early downs, UNLV may need success forcing Maddux Madsen into errors; he has extra turnover-worthy performs (seven) than big-time throws (three) this season.
The Rebels rank within the prime 20 in Professional Soccer Focus protection grades, and switch Jalen Catalon has been dominant at security.
When UNLV has the ball
After a weird midseason NIL snafu, the Rebels switched from Matthew Sluka to Hajj-Malik Williams as their beginning quarterback.
It’s unclear why Williams wasn’t beginning to start with; he’s the far superior choice, finishing 70.5% of his passes and averaging 9.5 yards per try, in comparison with a 43.8% completion fee and 6.6 yards per try for Sluka.
Extensive receiver Ricky White has thrived with Williams, averaging 122 receiving yards per sport because the swap was made.
The Broncos rank simply 102nd in move protection EPA and 122nd in tackling grades, so White ought to be capable of generate loads of explosive performs by means of the air to fight what ought to be a high-scoring Boise State offense.
Boise has allowed simply 2.9 yards per rush try on the bottom, which ranks eighth within the nation, so I wouldn’t financial institution on the Rebels’ backfield having a ton of success.
Kylin James, Jai’Den Thomas and Greg Burrell common greater than 5 yards per carry, however this seems like a matchup the place UNLV might want to lean on its passing sport.
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Boise State vs. UNLV decide
The road for this sport opened with the Broncos as a slight favourite, and the market has been shifting of their path all week. Boise State is now favored by 3.5 factors, and I can’t assist however have an interest within the house canine catching greater than a area aim. Nonetheless, two key elements lead me to move on the unfold.
Boise State has performed a considerably harder schedule; its energy of schedule ranks sixty fifth, in keeping with ESPN, whereas UNLV lags at 99th. The Broncos would be the most formidable crew the Rebels have seen all season, whereas Jeanty almost led his crew to a street upset over Oregon.
As well as, the Broncos have a notable relaxation benefit on this sport. The Rebels shall be enjoying on a brief week, from Saturday to Friday, whereas BSU is coming off a bye week with almost two full weeks to arrange for this important matchup.
As a substitute, I’m trying to again White on this sport. You’ll be able to create a same-game parlay on FanDuel with White to document 80+ receiving yards and rating a landing at -125 odds, which seems like super worth contemplating he’s hit these marks in all 4 video games with Williams as his quarterback.
Greatest guess: Ricky White 80+ receiving yards and a landing (-125, FanDuel)
Why Belief New York Put up Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps faculty soccer and the NFL for the New York Put up. He’s up 84.5 models throughout the 2 sports activities with a 6.27% ROI.