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Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl 2025 predictions, picks, odds

The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are formally headed to Tremendous Bowl LIX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 9, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
With two weeks till the massive rematch, we’re taking an early take a look at what you’ll be able to anticipate within the matchup. Lindsey Thiry units it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Adam Teicher and Tim McManus decide causes for hope and concern for each groups. Seth Walder provides you some key stats, Matt Bowen picks a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X issue. Aaron Schatz solutions large questions surrounding the ultimate recreation of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup. And eventually, we now have early gut-reaction predictions from our specialists.
Will Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ offense dominate? May Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs actually pull off the three-peat? This is the whole lot you should know.
Soar to a bit:
Chiefs | Eagles | Key stats
Matchup keys | Huge questions
Overreaction | Quarterbacks
Betting | Predictions
Tremendous Bowl LIX: Chiefs vs. Eagles
When: Sunday, Feb. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox
The place: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans | Tickets
Opening line, through ESPN BET: KC -1.5 (O/U 49.5)
ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index: PHI, 56.2% (by 2.3 factors)
This a rematch of Tremendous Bowl LVII, which capped the 2022 season and put the Chiefs on a path towards a historic Tremendous Bowl run. The Chiefs got here from behind to defeat the Eagles in that recreation, 38-35, then went on to defeat the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in Tremendous Bowl LVIII final season. Now, because the Chiefs make their fifth Tremendous Bowl look previously six seasons, they’ll grow to be the primary group within the Tremendous Bowl period to win three consecutive championships.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid will make his sixth Tremendous Bowl look, tying Don Shula for the second most behind solely Invoice Belichick (9), and quarterback Patrick Mahomes ties John Elway with the second-most Tremendous Bowl appearances (5) for a beginning quarterback. To earn a historic three-peat, Mahomes and the Chiefs should accomplish what few different groups have: Decelerate quarterback Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley and get by the Eagles’ top-rated protection.
After a 2-2 begin, Nick Sirianni — making his second Tremendous Bowl look in 4 seasons as Eagles coach — made changes that enabled the Eagles to win 12 of their closing 13 regular-season video games. Barkley, who arrived in Philadelphia through free company over the offseason, led the NFL with 2,005 dashing yards. Within the Eagles’ three postseason wins, Barkley has scored 5 touchdowns. Hurts has gained 5 playoff video games since 2022, the second most within the NFL throughout that span behind Mahomes. — Thiry
Common season: 15-2 | AFC seed: No. 1
Cause for hope: The Chiefs will not essentially have to attain numerous factors to win their third straight Tremendous Bowl as a result of their protection has constantly stored them in video games. Kansas Metropolis completed the common season ranked fourth in scoring protection (19.2 factors per recreation). The cross rush, which had 10 sacks mixed towards the Texans and Payments this postseason, has additionally been productive of late.
Cause for concern: The safety for quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been shaky at instances. Mahomes was sacked 36 instances within the common season, essentially the most in his profession, and one other 5 instances within the playoffs. The Chiefs benched three totally different gamers at left deal with earlier than selecting Joe Thuney, who shifted outdoors from left guard. The constant stress contributed to Mahomes’ 67.6 QBR, the second-worst full-season mark of his profession. — Teicher
Common season: 14-3 | NFC seed: No. 2
Cause for hope: The Eagles have the most effective protection and operating recreation within the NFL — they usually have labored hand in hand. Saquon Barkley is an explosive play ready to occur, as we noticed on the Eagles’ first snap of the NFC Championship Sport, and he is backed by an offensive line that ultimately wears down any opposition by 4 quarters. With that type of play, it is no shock Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in time of possession (32:22). Meaning much less stress on a protection that performs with the identical kind of bully mindset. The protection focuses on taking the ball away, the offense hardly ever turns the ball over and either side are as bodily because it will get. That makes the Eagles able to beating any group.
Cause for concern: The passing recreation has left one thing to be desired. A few of that may be attributed to a purposefully conservative method. With the bottom recreation and protection acting at such a excessive stage, there was an elevated concentrate on not turning the ball over by the air. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been glorious in that regard, giving the ball away simply 3 times because the Eagles’ Week 5 bye. Nonetheless, the scheme borders on predictable, and the product ought to actually be higher with abilities like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith operating routes. — McManus
Stats to know
The Chiefs’ offense is constructed on throwing the ball regularly and producing yards after catch (YAC). Kansas Metropolis ranks second in cross price over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, which means it handed much more usually than we might anticipate given recreation conditions than each different group in addition to Cincinnati. The Chiefs generated 0.16 EPA per play extra on dropbacks in comparison with designed carries. Once they do cross, YAC made up 58% of their receiving yards, which leads the league. Wideout Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs with 439 YAC.
1:30
Mike Tannenbaum: Chiefs peaking on the proper time
Mike Tannenbaum and Herm Edwards break down the Chiefs’ victory over the Payments to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl.
Positive, Brown had a quiet postseason earlier than Sunday, however he had a very ridiculous season if you happen to’re keen to look past his considerably pedestrian 1,067 receiving yards. He recorded 3.3 yards per route run this common season, which is the fourth-best mark by a receiver since 2007 (minimal 200 routes).
Brown’s manufacturing was depressed as a result of he missed 4 video games in an already run-heavy offense, however his play was stellar. One other quantity which backs that up is his 99 mark in ESPN’s total receiver scores — tracking-based metrics that quantify a participant’s potential to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectation. That is the very best total rating by any participant since 2017. It could be a mistake to ever depend out Brown from having a large Tremendous Bowl. — Walder
Contained in the matchup
Eagles OLB Nolan Smith Jr. vs. RT Jawaan Taylor
Smith’s potential to create stress off the sting has modified the profile of the Eagles’ cross rush. He has 4 sacks and 9 pressures within the playoffs, utilizing his lower-body management to slither round offensive tackles and shut on quarterbacks in a rush. Search for Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to scheme one-on-ones for Smith towards Taylor from vast alignments whereas additionally utilizing stunts to loop the skin linebacker inside. — Bowen
Eagles’ X issue: Dallas Goedert, TE
Goedert has been excellent since returning within the regular-season finale from a knee harm that sidelined him for 4 weeks. His chemistry with Hurts was on full show towards the Commanders. He led the Eagles in receptions (seven), tied Brown in targets (eight) and racked up 85 receiving yards. Goedert ought to play a key function within the Tremendous Bowl towards a Chiefs protection that gave up essentially the most receiving yards per recreation to tight ends in the course of the common season.
Chiefs’ X issue: Xavier Worthy, WR
Worthy has introduced velocity and toughness to Kansas Metropolis. He led all gamers with 85 receiving yards within the AFC Championship Sport and led the Chiefs with seven targets. His surge within the second half of the season carried into the playoffs, and he has been practically unattainable to comprise. The Eagles’ secondary can have its arms full attempting to sluggish Worthy down, particularly since no group has managed to take action this postseason. He is a key piece of the Chiefs’ offense heading into the Tremendous Bowl. — Moody
Answering large questions
What does historical past say in regards to the Chiefs’ quest to three-peat?
Whereas the Chiefs are attempting to grow to be the primary group to win three straight Tremendous Bowls, they’d not be the primary NFL group to three-peat. The Packers gained three straight NFL titles in the course of the Curly Lambeau period from 1929 to 1931, though there have been no playoff video games and solely 12 groups within the league. Inexperienced Bay additionally completed the feat in the course of the Vince Lombardi period from 1965 to 1967, which included wins within the first two Tremendous Bowls after the 1966 and 1967 seasons.
The Chiefs are the primary group to make the Tremendous Bowl in Yr 3 after two consecutive championships. Different groups made three straight Tremendous Bowls however misplaced one of many first two to forestall a three-peat. The 1971-73 Dolphins misplaced Tremendous Bowl VI to the Cowboys 24-3 earlier than successful the following two championships. The Patriots got here shut after they gained Tremendous Bowl LI because of the notorious “28-3” comeback over the Falcons. However they misplaced to the Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LII earlier than defeating the Rams the following yr.
How do these Eagles examine to the 2022 Tremendous Bowl group?
The most important distinction between the 2022 Eagles and the 2024 Eagles comes on offense. Surprisingly, the 2022 Eagles had been extra environment friendly operating the ball with Miles Sanders as their lead again. Each the usual statistics and superior metrics inform the identical story. The 2022 Eagles averaged 5.9 yards per play total, whereas the 2024 Eagles averaged 5.6 yards per play. In 2022, the Eagles ranked fifth in cross DVOA and led the NFL in rush DVOA. This season, the Eagles had been solely 14th in cross DVOA and sixth in rush DVOA.
Philadelphia did achieve extra yards per carry in 2024 than two seasons in the past (4.9 versus 4.6), so that you is perhaps questioning how its DVOA was decrease this season. The principle purpose is carry-by-carry consistency. The 2022 Eagles led the NFL with a 55% success price on carries. The 2024 Eagles had solely a forty five% success price, which ranked sixth. (This doesn’t embrace scrambles.)
0:16
Patrick Mahomes barrels into the tip zone for a Chiefs TD
Patrick Mahomes scores a 1-yard dashing landing on Third-and-goal to provide the Chiefs a 21-10 lead.
On protection, the massive distinction is stopping the run. Each the 2022 and 2024 Eagles had stellar defenses, because the 2022 Eagles ranked third in DVOA whereas the 2024 Eagles ranked first. The 2022 Eagles had the higher cross protection; they allowed 4.9 internet yards per cross in comparison with 5.1 this season. However this season’s Eagles had been a lot better towards the run. The Eagles ranked second in run protection DVOA behind the Broncos, whereas the 2022 Eagles ranked nineteenth. — Schatz
Judging one overreaction: Barkley goes to run everywhere in the Chiefs
Barkley’s good season continued Sunday, when he ran 60 yards for a landing on the Eagles’ first play from scrimmage and completed with 118 dashing yards and three touchdowns within the NFC Championship Sport. He has been an unstoppable drive all season, cementing himself as one of many nice free agent signings of all time and changing into a finalist for the MVP award.
His 2,005 dashing yards in the course of the common season rank eighth all time, and he has added 442 extra over three playoff video games. There’s little purpose to assume the Eagles will not depend on him to ship the second Tremendous Bowl title in franchise historical past.
The decision: OVERREACTION
It isn’t that he cannot do it, however fairly that the Chiefs aren’t more likely to make it as simple for him because the Commanders and Rams did the previous two weeks. Washington ranked twenty eighth within the league this season in yards allowed per rush (4.8) and twenty seventh in defensive rush success price (54.9%). The Rams — towards whom Barkley ran for 205 yards within the divisional spherical — tied for twenty third (4.6) and twenty fifth (55.5%) in these classes, respectively.
Kansas Metropolis, in the meantime, tied for fourth in yards allowed per rush (4.1) and ranked eleventh in defensive rush success price (61.0%).
Barkley can have success towards anybody, however the Chiefs are a stable wager to make it tougher than the Eagles’ previous two opponents. Additionally, Washington turned the ball over 4 instances Sunday, whereas the Chiefs entered the AFC title recreation on a streak of eight straight video games and not using a turnover. Tremendous Bowl-seasoned Kansas Metropolis ought to be a a lot harder total check for Barkley and the Eagles than upstart Washington. — Graziano
The quarterback matchup
Mahomes vs. Hurts
Any and each NFL quarterback could be at some drawback coming into a Tremendous Bowl towards Mahomes. This will likely be Mahomes’ fifth look previously six seasons (bonkers), his third consecutive Tremendous Bowl (tremendous bonkers) and probably the primary three-peat Tremendous Bowl championship (unprecedentedly bonkers). Whereas his 2024 numbers aren’t practically as gaudy as these he posted with prime Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, he has grow to be an unbelievably polished level guard who can erase a number of deficiencies that will in any other case cripple an NFL offense. The left deal with issues and the shortage of a WR1 ought to have mattered for Kansas Metropolis, however they have not.
Hurts has come underneath scrutiny for shaky postseason play in a really cushioned function within the Eagles’ offense, however the NFC Championship Sport was a pleasant reminder of his peak performances. He was removed from excellent however made correct throws into one-on-one protection and acquired time towards large blitz seems. He is not requested to do as a lot on this offense as he was two years in the past, but he can nonetheless make opponents pay once they promote out towards the run.
The large distinction between these two, and maybe the deciding issue of their rematch? Their play towards stress. Mahomes, with a legal responsibility at left deal with for a lot of the season, ranks second within the league in success price when pressured and fourth in EPA per dropback. Hurts — behind the most effective line within the league — is nineteenth and 14th, respectively. — Solak
Betting nuggets
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The Eagles entered the season 11-1 to win the Tremendous Bowl and +550 to win the NFC. They had been tied for the second favorites to win the NFC coming into the season with the Lions, trailing the 49ers (+260).
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Underdogs have gained three of the previous 4 Tremendous Bowls. Since 2007, underdogs are 10-7 outright and 12-5 towards the unfold within the Tremendous Bowl.
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The Eagles are 13-7 towards the unfold this season, together with the playoffs.
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The Chiefs are 8-11 ATS. In the event that they win the Tremendous Bowl, they’ll have the worst ATS file by a Tremendous Bowl champion (2021 Rams had been 10-11).
Extra Tremendous Bowl LIX odds and developments
Intestine-reaction predictions
Stephania Bell, NFL harm analyst: Chiefs. I discovered my lesson after selecting towards them final yr; the extra intense the competitors, the extra they rise to the event.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Eagles. I will take the Philly run recreation with Barkley and a cross rush that may win on the sides, whereas additionally creating inside stress to disrupt Mahomes’ timing.
Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Chiefs. I’ve a rule to by no means decide towards Mahomes within the Tremendous Bowl. It is that easy.
Dan Graziano, NFL nationwide reporter: Chiefs. They’re inevitable.
Eric Moody, fantasy analyst: Chiefs. Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense won’t look as explosive as in previous seasons, however they ship when it issues most. Add in a Kansas Metropolis protection that is taking part in at a excessive stage, and this group is hard to beat.
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Chiefs. As a result of it is the Chiefs.
Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Chiefs. They’re peaking on the proper time, and I’m anxious in regards to the accidents on the Eagles’ inside offensive line .(Landon Dickerson left the NFC Championship Sport with a knee harm.)
Lindsey Thiry, NFL nationwide reporter: Chiefs. There isn’t any approach you’ll be able to decide towards coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. Again and again, all they do is win.
Seth Walder, analytics author: Eagles. They seem to be a full group with power constructed on power constructed on power. They’re going to avenge their Tremendous Bowl LVII loss.
Seth Wickersham, NFL author: Chiefs. It is too exhausting to beat the Reid/Mahomes/whichever receiver has an enormous recreation/Steve Spagnuolo combo.
Discipline Yates, NFL analyst: Chiefs. Like Matt Miller, there are a number of guidelines in life that I’ll ceaselessly comply with. Close to the highest of that checklist is to not decide towards Mahomes within the Tremendous Bowl. The Chiefs make historical past with a three-peat.
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