Bayern Munich vs PSG: Four years after meeting in the Champions League final, how have they changed?

4 years in the past, in 2020, Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 within the Champions League remaining. Tonight, they meet for the third time since.

These 4 years — an Olympic cycle, a World Cup cycle — is a time period that lends itself to assessing how the 2 golf equipment, which share as many similarities as variations, have modified.

They had been the 2 shedding Champions League semi-finalists final season: PSG to Borussia Dortmund (eventual runners-up) and Bayern to Actual Madrid (winners).

Neither have had the shame of being grouped over these 4 years, however neither have made a remaining since that 2020 remaining in Lisbon, with a mixed 5 exits within the spherical of 16/quarter-finals. Good within the teams, not nice within the knockouts.

Every have received three of the final 4 league titles. It’s three in a row for PSG, after Lille received Ligue 1 in 2020-21. Final season, Bayer Leverkusen romped to the Bundesliga title to finish Bayern’s 11-year run of first-place finishes.

In order for you a way of current imperfections of two groups who principally cruise to titles however are unusually beatable of their home cup, the three post-final match-ups function totally different head coaches on either side.

Mauricio Pochettino’s PSG eradicated a Hansi Flick Bayern facet (on away objectives) within the 2020-21 Champions League quarter-finals. Two seasons later, Julian Nagelsmann’s Bayern received each legs, 2-0 in Paris then 1-0 in Munich, over Christophe Galtier’s PSG.

This time, it’s Vincent Kompany up in opposition to Luis Enrique, in a fixture which has the quirk of being performed 13 instances and by no means drawn — the most-played European fixture for each golf equipment the place each sport has had a winner.

ClubElo scores quantify their modifications in kind over time and is a extra dependable means of cross-division comparisons. It’s a scoring methodology from chess, which allocates factors when groups win, with extra factors for beating a greater crew. The upper the ranking, the extra superior you might be.

Because the 2020 remaining, Bayern loved an uptick earlier than trending downwards from 2021. PSG have undulated, to the extent that they’re about the identical stage.

On the pitch, they appear comparable. Kompany’s need for urgent depth is impressed by how Bayern defended below Pep Guardiola, whereas Luis Enrique by no means likes his groups being out of possession. Consequently, they share defensive ideas, taking loads of threat with player-for-player urgent schemes.

Evaluate Bayern in white beneath…

… with PSG in Pink beneath.

Such approaches are simpler to implement (and execute) of their home leagues in comparison with Europe, admittedly, however Luis Enrique and Kompany, regardless of being at totally different locations of their teaching careers, are equally dogmatic.

Luis Enrique is a former Barcelona participant and coach in each sense, whereas Vincent Kompany performed 62 instances for Guardiola in his remaining seasons at Manchester Metropolis. The critique of Kompany’s Burnley final season was that they had been relegated by making an attempt to play an excessive amount of like Metropolis, and that he failed upwards into the Bayern job.

They’re the highest two groups for common possession in Europe’s high 5 leagues this season: Bayern, 71.5 per cent; PSG, 68.2 per cent. After they meet tonight, it’ll probably be 4-3-3 (PSG) versus 4-2-3-1 (Bayern) and each groups shift right into a again three in build-up, although in several methods.

PSG tuck their left-back in and push right-back Achraf Hakimi upfield, both into the half-space or excessive and large, relying on proper winger Ousmane Dembele’s place.

Bayern are extra diverse, generally dropping a pivot between the centre-backs (Joao Palhinha does this specifically, however he’s out injured). Anticipate central midfielder Joshua Kimmich to rotate out to proper centre-back, which permits each full-backs to play aggressively and create a entrance 5, with slim wingers.

The actual attacking distinction is the No 9. Bayern have Harry Kane there, and whereas he tends to drop in, the England worldwide has scored essentially the most objectives of any participant in Europe’s high 5 leagues for the reason that begin of final season (50). He’s a penalty-box goalscorer.

Luis Enrique, in the meantime, persists with a strikerless system, having fielded Lee Kang-in, Marco Asensio and Dembele (all midfielders/wingers) in false 9 roles. The contrasts of getting Kane and Lee on the high of the pitch mirror variations in squad constructing and recruitment.

PSG have moved on from their galacticos method, prioritising youth and Parisien — or at the very least French — expertise. Paradoxically, Bayern’s Champions League-winning aim in 2020 was scored by Kingsley Coman, a Paris-born, PSG academy graduate.

They’re the second-youngest crew in Ligue 1 this season (24.0 common age, behind solely Strasbourg’s 21.9). Since Luis Enrique’s arrival firstly of 2023-24, PSG have paid a switch payment for 15 gamers — 12 had been aged 24 or youthful.

Their overhaul is clearest when trying on the groups from the primary leg of the quarter-final assembly in 2021-22. Centre-back pairing Marquinhos and Presnel Kimpembe are the one remaining gamers from that 23-man PSG squad.

Comparatively, 5 of Bayern’s beginning entrance six from that sport are nonetheless first-team regulars: midfield duo Kimmich and Leon Goretzka, wingers Coman and Leroy Sane, and No 10 Thomas Muller. Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting, who Bayern solely launched this summer season, was the No 9.

As per CIES, a soccer information analysis group, Bayern’s beginning XIs this season function gamers who, on common, have been on the membership 59 months (nearly 5 years). That makes them essentially the most steady crew for participant longevity in Europe’s main leagues, they usually’re the second-oldest within the Bundesliga (28.2 common age, behind Bochum’s 28.4).

Bayern look to be treading the identical path that PSG did, only a few years in a while. They modified their board construction and personnel in 2023, appointing two former RB Leipzig workers in Max Eberl (director of sport) and Christoph Freund (sporting director). A part of their remit is to usher in youthful expertise and transfer away from primarily signing stars. Sound acquainted?

The contrasts of league and European kind for either side this season are symptomatic of their current issues. PSG and Bayern are unbeaten after 12 and 11 league video games respectively, the highest two in Europe’s high 5 leagues for factors per sport.

It’s the second time within the final six seasons (2022-23 being the opposite event) that PSG are unbeaten at this stage, however notably they’ve scored 36 objectives, their most in six seasons, and 9 of their 10 wins have been by two or extra objectives. There’s some opposition high quality to think about (they haven’t performed Monaco nor Lyon but) however regardless of Kylian Mbappe’s summer season transfer to Actual Madrid, PSG have clicked.

Comparatively, Bayern have made an equivalent league begin to final season (9 wins and two attracts from the opening 11) and are placing groups away much more than PSG — six of their wins have been by three or extra objectives.

There’s every part to counsel each groups, with aggressive out-of-possession methods, dominant attacking approaches and relative particular person high quality (to the remainder of their league), ought to canter to league titles. But each are struggling in Europe.

Kompany has Kane to play as a No 9 (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Photos)

Bayern are on six factors and PSG 4, sitting seventeenth and twenty fifth. Opta’s simulations predict that 10 factors shall be sufficient for a top-24 spot, although actually each must be focusing on a top-eight end to keep away from the play-off spherical. Fifteen factors is the anticipated threshold, which requires perfection from PSG of their remaining 4 league video games, and Bayern want three wins. Close to perfection.

Luis Enrique has repeatedly referred to as PSG “unfortunate” and identified they’ve, statistically, the toughest fixture checklist. They’ve been essentially the most wasteful finishers (underperforming their anticipated objectives by 5 and solely scoring 9 per cent of massive possibilities) and a part of that ties again into their profiles and elegance.

“We want 20 clear possibilities to attain. The opposition sneeze and rating. It’s the identical dynamic each time,” stated the PSG head coach after Atletico Madrid’s 2-1 smash-and-grab in Paris earlier this month.

The strikerless system is way simpler to use in Ligue 1, the place defences are youthful, extra inexperienced, much less bodily and of decrease particular person/collective high quality. In Europe, PSG face loads of low blocks and, at instances, want a Kane-like No 9 who might be an aerial risk at crosses and duel in opposition to centre-backs.

Goncalo Ramos has been that, particularly as an alternative, however he’s not performed since matchday one on account of an ankle damage. After the defeat by Atletico, Luis Enrique was requested about taking part in a standard No 9, having began Asensio.

“Carry him to me, when you’ve got him. The place do I get this striker from? I’m sticking to my concepts. The day I fail shall be with my concepts, not these of a journalist or one other coach.” Basic Luis Enrique, actually. Plan B is to do Plan A greater.

Bayern, too, have their issues, significantly in defensive transition. General, their numbers are OK however that’s as a result of they do plenty of defending with the ball. Bayern are giving up the highest-quality pictures on common (0.16xG/shot) within the Champions League.

These frailties had been uncovered of their 1-0 defeat away at Aston Villa, as they performed with aggressively excessive full-backs and made loads of midfield rotations.

That makes PSG’s counter-attack — as a lot as Luis Enrique will need to win with “his (possession) concepts” — a pivotal a part of the match. The dribbling high quality and tempo of Bradley Barcola and Dembele are vital right here.

PSG’s 21 direct assaults are essentially the most within the Champions League this season. Opta outline these as regains in a crew’s personal half, with at the very least 50 per cent ahead motion, ending in a shot or contact within the opposition field.

Luis Enrique is sticking to Plan A (Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Photos)

The 2 golf equipment are caught between a rock and a tough place. Bundesliga and Ligue 1 video games, as assessments of high quality and techniques, have restricted use for European preparation.

Their efforts to unravel which have manifested in two very totally different recruitment and squad-building approaches, and but there’s loads of tactical overlap.

They’ve each tried the avenue of a infamous match head coach in Thomas Tuchel, and moved onto a way more idealistic one.

PSG and Bayern have very totally different pressures, however each share one large drawback: getting again to the Champions League remaining.

A win for one in every of them tonight will hold their knockout-round hopes alive, and massively harm the hopes of their opposition.

GO DEEPER

Bayern Munich could not cease scoring. Then they got here up in opposition to Unai Emery

(High photograph: Bayern’s gamers clap these of PSG after defeating them within the Champions League remaining in 2020; by David Ramos/AFP through Getty Photos)