The scholars that acquired their stage 3 outcomes as we speak symbolize the second cohort for which grading has been again to ‘regular’, following centre and instructor assessments and a gradual return to pre-pandemic grade boundaries.
As such, this represents the primary time since 2019 that outcomes will be in comparison with the earlier 12 months on a like-for-like foundation. On this evaluation piece, we subsequently give attention to comparisons to 2023, and to 2019.
Ofqual’s method in 2024 was to keep up 2023 requirements. Because of this increased/decrease grades in a given topic in 2024 point out that this 12 months’s college students achieved extra/much less extremely than in 2023. That is in distinction to how grade boundaries have been set final 12 months, which had extra protections in-built to stop grades dropping under 2019 ranges (so the proportion of grades awarded have been set to be comparable). Because of this whereas we will examine grades to 2019, this isn’t fairly equal to evaluating requirements.
College students in 2024 didn’t have their GCSEs or 16-19 exams cancelled due to the pandemic, nevertheless they nonetheless had two years of their secondary research severely disrupted. Though examination primarily based, their GCSEs sat in 2022 have been marked extra generously than a normal 12 months, which can have influenced some college students’ selection of 16-19 research programmes.
Entries to A ranges have been at a document excessive for the second 12 months in a row, with 816,948 A ranges awarded as we speak. The numbers have elevated lately as we proceed to see an increase within the variety of 18-year-olds progressing by way of the schooling system.
FIGURE 1: A stage grade distribution by 12 months
Determine 1 reveals that, as anticipated, the 2024 grading distribution may be very carefully aligned to that of final 12 months. A barely increased proportion of scholars achieved A/A* grades in 2024 (27.6 per cent) than in 2023 (26.5 per cent). Greater than three quarters (76 per cent) of entries have been awarded grade C or above, once more a slight improve on 2023 (75.4 per cent). Though extra college students achieved high grades this 12 months, the general move charge (these reaching grade E or above) was much like 2023 (97.1per cent in comparison with 97.2 per cent).
FIGURE 2: Proportion of A stage entries awarded high grades, by English area
Determine 2 reveals that though the proportion of high grades achieved elevated in all areas in comparison with 2023, there was substantial variation across the nation. Notably, the largest will increase have been within the West Midlands and North East the place 24.8 and 23.9 per cent of scholars acquired high grades respectively this 12 months, in comparison with 22.9 and 22.0 per cent in 2023.
The subsequent best improve was in London, which was additionally the area the place most college students acquired high grades (31.3 per cent), a rise of 1.3 proportion factors since 2023. Though London was nonetheless the very best performing area by way of A/A* grades, there are indicators that the speed at which its college students are pulling away from these in different areas is beginning to gradual.
The area the place the bottom proportion of scholars acquired high grades was the East Midlands (22.5 per cent), a comparatively small improve of 0.2 proportion factors since 2023.
FIGURE 3: Proportion of A stage entries awarded high grades, by centre sort
Determine 3 reveals the proportion of scholars reaching A or A* grade A ranges by centre sort. The most important improve since 2023 was seen in free faculties, from 33.8 to 37.1 per cent of scholars, while the supplier sort with the general highest grades have been unbiased faculties, which has constantly been the case lately.
In FE faculties, the proportion of scholars reaching high grades in 2024 elevated to 14.8 from 14.0 per cent in 2023. Nonetheless, that is nonetheless under the 2019 proportion of 16.2 per cent.
This variation is prone to be associated to the variations in consumption between establishment varieties, relatively than a easy reflection of high quality of provision. Unbiased and selective faculties are inclined to tackle extra college students with increased prior attainment and much fewer college students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, whereas FE faculties usually serve a better proportion of deprived college students.
Latest EPI analysis has set out particulars of how a pupil premium could possibly be carried out within the 16-19 part to higher assist deprived college students of their sixth kind or faculty research[1].
[1] https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/implementing-a-16-19-student-premium/
FIGURE 4: Male v feminine A stage grade will increase 2024 in comparison with 2023
Determine 4 reveals that since final 12 months, there’s variation within the topics for which male or feminine college students had largest will increase in high grades.
There was a much bigger improve within the proportion of feminine college students receiving high grades since 2023 in lots of STEM topics, notably maths and additional maths, physics, chemistry, and biology. There have additionally been sharp will increase within the proportion of scholars coming into these topics this 12 months.
FIGURE 5: The A stage gender hole: attainment and entries in 2024
Determine 5 reveals that the themes mostly entered by male college students should not essentially those the place they obtain increased grades, and vice versa. The highest left and backside proper quadrants present the topic areas the place that is the case.
Whereas feminine college students had larger will increase within the proportion reaching the highest grades since 2023 in maths, additional maths and physics (as proven in Determine 4), male college students nonetheless achieved a larger proportion of A and A* grades in absolute phrases.
Conversely, though extra male college students entered computing, it’s feminine college students that achieved the upper grades. General, there are extra topics (68 per cent) the place feminine college students obtain the upper proportion of high grades, together with STEM topics comparable to biology and chemistry.
College students taking stage 3 technical and vocational {qualifications} additionally acquired their outcomes as we speak, together with the third cohort of T stage college students. These new {qualifications} have been designed as high-status technical alternate options to A ranges. For a brief interval, it regarded as if T ranges may by no means change into established as they have been set to get replaced beneath the deliberate Superior British Commonplace (ABS). Nonetheless, now that it’s confirmed that the ABS won’t go forward, it seems as if T ranges will probably be right here to remain.
The third cohort of T stage college students started their {qualifications} in 2022, and this cohort have once more been graded favourably to recognise that these {qualifications} are nonetheless of their roll-out part. Determine 6 reveals that, though 10,253 college students started a T stage two years in the past, solely 7,262 accomplished their T stage and acquired a grade as we speak, equal to 71 per cent. This is a rise from 66 per cent in 2021. This determine can be decrease than the completion charges of 75 per cent for comparable sized vocational or technical {qualifications} (the present alternate options to A ranges) and 88 per cent for these taking three A ranges final 12 months. It seems then that T ranges college students have gotten virtually as prone to full T ranges as college students taking comparable sized VTQs. This determine could proceed to extend as T ranges full their roll-out, and suppliers change into extra conversant in these new {qualifications}. Nonetheless, it is usually price taking into account that T ranges are extra selective than VTQs, with round 95 per cent of T ranges college students having move in GCSE English and maths, in contrast with round 70-75 per cent for college students taking current VTQs.
FIGURE 6: Completion charges of T ranges, comparable sized A stage and VTQ programmes
FIGURE 7: Completion charges of T ranges by pathway
Nonetheless, the completion charge differs significantly throughout T stage pathways. Utilizing statistics from the T stage motion plans, Determine 7 reveals that every one current pathways noticed enhancements of their completion charge. Notably, the Well being and Science pathway noticed a major enchancment of their completion charge (transferring from simply over 50 per cent to over 70 per cent). That is encouraging given the most important challenges that have been highlighted with the Well being and Science pathway by Ofsted and others.[1] It seems that many of those challenges have been addressed, no less than partly, which is nice information for college students and suppliers. Of the 2024 pathways, the Finance and Accounting pathway noticed the bottom completion charge (however this was not too far off the common).
[1] See T-level thematic assessment: remaining report – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) and Data on IfATE’s assessment of the Well being and Science 2022 T Degree core assessments / Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Training
Given completion charges are nonetheless low in some pathways (and decrease than different comparable VTQs and A ranges), it is going to be essential to analyze which college students are dropping out and why throughout the completely different T stage pathways. EPI are at the moment engaged on a mission analyzing the broader drivers of T stage completion (inside every pathway) which will probably be printed subsequent month.
FIGURE 8: 18-year-olds UCAS purposes, England
The variety of 18-year-olds making use of for increased schooling programs from England remained at a comparable stage to 2023 (43 per cent), having peaked in 2022 (45 per cent). As we will see from Determine 8, this comes along with a continued improve within the measurement of the 18-year-old inhabitants, which means that there are barely extra 18-year-olds in England coming into increased schooling this 12 months than final.
Though college software charges peaked within the pandemic, they’re nonetheless significantly increased than they’ve been for a lot of the final decade.
FIGURE 9: UCAS purposes for every UK nation and worldwide college students, all ages
Whereas the variety of 18-year-olds in England making use of for college has not decreased this 12 months, Determine 9 reveals that the variety of purposes in England by college students off all ages is decrease than it was in 2023. Mixed with slight decreases within the variety of purposes from worldwide college students, this might end in extra locations being supplied to 18-year-olds in England this 12 months. This will likely counsel that college locations could possibly be rather less aggressive in 2024, nevertheless Determine 10, under, reveals that the pattern in purposes is completely different for decrease/medium and better tariff universities.
FIGURE 10: UCAS purposes and acceptance charge by supplier/college tariff (all ages, all UK nations and worldwide college students)
As we will see from Determine 10, while the variety of purposes for medium and low tariff universities is much like pre-pandemic ranges and has fluctuated over the past decade, the variety of purposes for prime tariff universities has grown constantly over the identical interval. The applicant acceptance charge for prime tariff universities elevated considerably through the pandemic, when pupil caps have been quickly lifted in some topics, and demand was at a document stage. Nonetheless, in newer years the excessive tariff acceptance charge has returned again to ranges final seen at the beginning of the 2010s, so it stays doubtless that competitors for locations in additional selective universities will stay excessive in 2024.
Determine 10 reveals the top of cycle acceptance charge, after clearing so solely goes as much as 2023. Nonetheless, UCAS statistics as we speak present that the preliminary variety of accepted candidates in England has gone up from 303,460 to 312,920 candidates in comparison with the identical day final 12 months. Taking a look at 18-year-olds solely, the variety of accepted candidates on outcomes day elevated from 196,650 to 208,960 since final 12 months. This displays an entry charge of 32 per cent of the 18-year-old inhabitants, up one proportion level since final 12 months.
FIGURE 11: 18-year-olds UCAS software charges by English area
Determine 11 reveals a breakdown of the applying charge amongst 18-year-olds from completely different areas over the previous decade.
All areas noticed a rise in purposes by way of the pandemic. These will increase have largely subsided, however software charges in 2024 have been nonetheless increased than they have been in 2019 throughout all areas besides the North East.
Whereas this pattern persists throughout all areas in England, variations within the diploma of this development have produced rising regional inequalities.
Evidently, there’s a vital disparity between software charges amongst college students coming from London and their counterparts in all different English areas. Most notably, purposes in London elevated in 2024, in comparison with 2023, at a time when the speed in all different areas besides the West Midlands decreased.
The hole between software charges from London and the North East, which had the bottom software charge, has elevated from 17 per cent in 2019 to 26 per cent in 2024.
FIGURE 12: POLAR 4 software charges in England
Determine 12 reveals the applying charge for college students from areas with traditionally excessive and low participation charges in increased schooling, utilizing the POLAR4 quintiles. Quintile 1 signifies the areas with lowest ranges of participation, whereas quintile 5 signifies the very best.
The disparity between the quintiles was at its highest in 2021, on the top of the pandemic. The hole has since decreased however stays barely increased than pre-pandemic ranges. Extra broadly there was no change on this hole within the final decade.