Is Japan’s Sudden Pivot to China Naïve?  – The Diplomat

Throughout his first official go to to China on December 25-26, Japanese Overseas Minister Iwaya Takeshi made an surprising announcement. Japan will calm down its entry necessities for Chinese language nationals and grant ten-year vacationer visas as a part of a so-called Creating an Surroundings Conducive to Selling Individuals-to-Individuals Exchanges initiative. 

The assertion got here as a shock on a number of fronts because the rationale for providing such unprecedented preferential therapy is unclear. China’s response was, primarily, worthless. The ten-year multiple-entry vacationer visa to be offered by Japan to Chinese language nationals was met with China providing a mere 15-day extension (from 15 days to 30 days) for Japanese guests to China. Hardly a quid professional quo.

Such pandering by the Japanese authorities is weird given the present diplomatic backdrop. Since China enacted its “counterespionage” legislation in 2015, 17 Japanese residents, together with an Astellas worker final yr, have been arrested and detained. As U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel opined in 2023, “China says they’re open for enterprise, nevertheless it doesn’t really feel prefer it for the workers of Astellas, Bain & Co, Mintz, Capvision, and, now, Nomura. The checklist of corporations focused by police raids, arrests, and detainment is rising by the day, and overseas funding continues to slip by the week. With regards to matter of ‘containing’ China, the PRC is in a category of its personal.” 

Apparently, the Ishiba administration thinks in a different way.

Moreover, the announcement of the brand new visa program does nothing to discourage ongoing and aggressive Chinese language navy deployments. Mockingly, on the identical day of the announcement of the brand new program, one other Chinese language buoy was reportedly present in Japan’s unique financial zone (EEZ), 140 km southwest of the Japanese island of Hateruma, Okinawa Prefecture. The Japanese overseas minister’s ineffective enchantment to his Chinese language counterpart, Wang Yi, bore no fruit, as a Chinese language spokesperson later insisted that the buoy was inside “Chinese language jurisdiction,” “rational,” and “professional.” China won’t acquiesce to Japanese calls for for its removing. That is one other instance of China’s refusal to compromise in areas the place its nationwide curiosity is perceived to be vital. And this unfavorable improvement solely added to the Japanese authorities’s embarrassment in opposition to the backdrop of its staged closeness and pronouncement of two nations looking for methods to enhance their relationship.

What’s the rationale for the Ishiba administration’s deference to China? Is it post-war guilt, diplomatic advantage signaling, economics, or commerce? Regardless of the perceived acquire, the truth is that Japan achieved nothing however the look of submission, alongside additional nationwide safety challenges and a future social welfare fiscal burden. 

The visa initiative is clearly not pushed by any financial logic. The argument {that a} ten-year “vacationer” visa is critical to encourage tourism is totally specious, when a three-month visa, as generally provided by different nations, would suffice for any real sightseeing endeavor. The truth that Chinese language guests aged 65 and older are exempted from submitting proof of employment when making use of for visas can be troubling. It opens Japan as much as opportunistic medical tourism that may solely additional burden the already struggling Japanese well being and social safety techniques.

The problem of medical “vacationers” comes at a time when Japan’s demographics have deteriorated to hazardous ranges, through which the numerical imbalance between younger staff and retirees, and a traditionally low and declining birthrate, already make Japan’s social safety and well being techniques fiscally unsustainable. These structural issues additionally create a drag on financial development. Since 2000, Japan’s annualized actual GDP development was solely 0.6 p.c, whereas the U.S. economic system grew at greater than 3 times this fee, and the Chinese language economic system at ten instances that of Japan. A perceived fast income repair from tourism will definitely not reverse such a long-run structural decline.

One other consideration is that of nationwide safety. The Cupboard Workplace report of December 23, 2024, revealed that Chinese language nationals are actually the largest overseas consumers of Japanese land, notably in areas close to websites deemed delicate to Japan’s safety. An incapability to undertake an efficient nationwide safety legislative framework is seen together with an absence of urgency to handle urgent home points.

Slightly than ushering within the new spirit of Sino-Japanese détente, the initiative seems to be an indication of Japan’s weak point that may possible solely invite additional Chinese language aggressiveness. Such Japanese ineptitude illustrates that Japan could also be freely taken benefit of, and this makes Japan much less safe, no more.

As neither Japan’s prime minister nor overseas minister has but visited america to fulfill with key members of the incoming Trump administration, Iwaya’s go to to China was seemingly timed intentionally. As a substitute of such ill-conceived forays directed towards a Sino-Japanese rapprochement, Japan’s diplomatic imperatives would have been higher served by first shoring up its diplomacy and strategic safety alliance with america as its sole ally. Stronger messaging towards america, to guard its pursuits, quite than primarily unilateral motion towards a non-ally, would have been a greater use of Japanese diplomacy. Moreover, Japan ought to be additional advancing the nation’s embryonic safety company with democratic nations similar to the UK and Australia, with which it holds shared values, and establishments similar to NATO.

The Japanese concessions, albeit maybe well-intentioned, threat upsetting the fragile stability when it comes to the safety techniques which have largely maintained peace in East Asia within the fashionable period. Japan’s pro-China strikes threat additional isolating Taiwan and will speed up China’s territorial ambitions within the Taiwan Strait.

Japan, over current years, has adeptly maintained practical diplomatic and financial ties with each China and Taiwan. The brand new pro-China coverage may manifest a Japanese personal objective the place it could finally be pressured to decide on China over Taiwan. 

Undoing the fastidiously crafted diplomacy of his predecessors exhibits the hazard of a first-rate minister who has no strategic plan or long-term overseas coverage objective. The professional-China method seems to be coverage made “on the fly,” but it would create issues that, at finest, might endure for years. At worst, the affect might show to be each deleterious and irreversible.