Penn State vs. Boise State: Fiesta Bowl odds, preview as Nittany Lions advance in College Football Playoff

For the primary time in program historical past, Penn State is transferring on within the Faculty Soccer Playoff. The (6) Nittany Lions punched their ticket to a showdown towards (3) Boise State within the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal on Dec. 31 with a dominant 38-10 win towards (11) SMU on Saturday. 

Penn State managed the sport from the opening kickoff because of a staunch effort from its protection. The Nittany Lions stoned SMU on fourth-and-1 at Penn State’s 19-yard line to finish SMU’s first offensive drive. Then, on SMU’s subsequent possession, Penn State linebacker Dominic DeLuca returned an interception 23 yards for the primary landing of the sport. 

That was the primary of two first-half interceptions for DeLuca, and the primary of two first-half choose sixes for Penn State’s protection. The Nittany Lions scored 21 factors over the primary two quarters off of turnovers. Their fourth landing got here after stuffing SMU on one other fourth down conversion try. 

After taking a 28-0 lead into the half, Penn State’s win was elementary from there. The Nittany Lions now flip their consideration to their consideration to a robust Boise State group. 

This would be the first assembly between the 2 storied packages. Boise State and Penn State each rank top-10 in all-time win proportion, and the resurgent Broncos — who was once a New Yr’s Six mainstay — did sufficient as Mountain West champion to earn a first-round bye below first-year coach Spencer Danielson. 

What to find out about Boise State 

Boise State is driving an 11-game successful streak into the Faculty Soccer Playoff, together with a 21-7 conquer UNLV within the Mountain West Championship Recreation. The Broncos’ solely loss this season? By three factors on the street towards top-seeded Oregon. 

It is no secret how Boise State acquired to 12-1 — they’ve spent the yr driving Doak Walker Award-winning operating again Ashton Jeanty. Regardless of how groups put together for the onslaught by loading the field, it would not matter; Jeanty has spent all season obliterating defenses en path to Heisman Trophy finalist standing. 

Jeanty has 1,882 yards after contact, which is greater than another FBS participant has complete yards speeding. He is averaging 4.8 yards after contact per rush and has a profession pressured missed deal with price of 37.1%. It is nearly unattainable to convey him down on first contact, and he has the pace to burn previous defenders as soon as he hits house. 

It hasn’t all been Jeanty, although. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been probably the most environment friendly sign callers within the nation this yr with a 62% completion price and 22 touchdowns to only three interceptions. Jeanty makes his job simpler, however he is made essentially the most of his alternatives. 

Although inconsistent, Boise State’s protection has additionally held its personal a number of occasions this yr. The Broncos have not allowed greater than 24 factors in a single recreation since Oct. 5, and so they’ve held every of their final three opponents below 20 factors. 

What to find out about Penn State 

Large Recreation James (Franklin) lastly lived as much as the moniker Saturday as his Penn State group cruised to its first-ever Faculty Soccer Playoff win, thrashing a woefully overmatched SMU group within the course of. It was the Nittany Lions’ first actual signature win of the season (they did beat a stable Illinois squad 21-7), although they’ve come near breaking by way of this yr. 

Their two losses got here by a mixed 15 factors towards a pair of top-10 groups in Ohio State and Oregon, the latter of which got here within the Large Ten Championship Recreation. Like Boise State, Penn State pushed the Geese to the brink with a 13-point fourth quarter however in the end fell brief when quarterback Drew Allar threw an interception on what may have been a game-tying drive late within the fourth quarter. 

Despite that, and his general lackluster efficiency towards the Mustangs, Allar has performed a number of the finest soccer of his profession this season below new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Getting into Saturday’s recreation, he accomplished 69.1% of his passes — up nearly 10% from 2023 — for two,894 yards (one other profession excessive) and 21 touchdowns. He is additionally averaging 8.9 yards per try in comparison with 6.8 in 2023.

It helps when he has a security valve like Tyler Warren, the Mackey Award winner who additionally completed seventh in Heisman Trophy voting as one of many sport’s most dynamic gamers. The Nittany Lions transfer him everywhere in the discipline — he is lined up at tight finish, broad receiver, slot receiver, fullback, operating again, quarterback and offensive line — and he is delivered with 1,095 yards and 6 touchdowns receiving, 4 touchdowns speeding and one landing passing. 

As evidenced by Penn State’s first-round efficiency, the protection is robust as ever. Via its first 13 video games, it ranked top-10 nationally in each complete protection (282.1 yards per recreation; sixth in FBS) and scoring protection (16.4 factors per recreation; eighth). 

Fiesta Bowl odds, prediction 

It is comprehensible that the fast line can be closely skewed towards Penn State given what the Nittany Lions did Saturday afternoon. However, make no mistake, Boise State is an excellent soccer group. The Broncos got here a few performs away from upsetting Oregon. Jeanty goes to provide it doesn’t matter what, and the Broncos are a reasonably full group exterior of their star operating again. Not prepared to select Boise State straight up, however this recreation goes to be a lot nearer than the preliminary line signifies. Choose: Boise State +11.5