Ted Cruz defeats Colin Allred in U.S. Senate race

Join The Temporary, The Texas Tribune’s every day publication that retains readers on top of things on essentially the most important Texas information.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz simply defeated U.S. Rep. Colin Allred on Tuesday, defying one other spirited and well-funded effort to show Texas blue and preserving his standing as a number one conservative voice in American politics.

“The outcomes tonight, this decisive victory, ought to shake the Democrat institution to its core,” he mentioned in a speech to supporters at his marketing campaign watch get together in downtown Houston.

The Related Press referred to as his victory after 10 p.m. as Cruz was main by greater than double digits.

Shortly after, Allred informed his supporters at his election night time get together in Dallas that he had conceded to Cruz.

“Tonight, I referred to as Sen. Cruz and congratulated him on his victory. It should not be exceptional to need to admit defeat, however in right this moment’s politics, it is turning into rarer and rarer,” Allred mentioned.

After his shut scare in opposition to then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2018, Cruz vowed to enter this election cycle higher ready and extra aggressive, decided to keep away from the ignominious destiny of turning into the primary Texas Republican to lose statewide since 1994.

Cruz’s victory as soon as once more dashes Democrats’ dream of breaking their decades-long drought in Texas statewide elections. However it was not and not using a severe problem: Each candidates raised north of $80 million and attracted hundreds of thousands extra from exterior teams wanting to sway a contest that carried potential to resolve management of the U.S. Senate.

In his victory speech, Cruz supplied a facetious phrase of due to Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, for spending hundreds of thousands attempting to flip Texas.

“I wish to say, thanks, Chuck,” Cruz mentioned. “And I hope we win a number of extra Senate seats tonight since you wasted a lot cash in Texas.”

Allred, a former NFL linebacker and civil rights lawyer from Dallas, repeatedly broke fundraising data in his marketing campaign, elevating greater than $80 million by mid-October. He blanketed the state with adverts introducing himself as a extra bipartisan different to Cruz. In the meantime, it was Cruz’s first election because the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade and Cruz’s effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election outcomes, giving Democrats hope that he could be weak this 12 months.

Like in 2018, polls within the lead as much as Election Day remained shut. Allred was repeatedly polling inside single digits behind Cruz, with one September ballot exhibiting him one level forward. The Allred marketing campaign revealed inside polling simply days earlier than Election Day exhibiting the 2 tied.

Ultimately, Allred couldn’t overcome Vice President Kamala Harris’ deficit to Republican nominee Donald Trump atop the poll in Texas. Although Allred stored his distance from his get together’s presidential nominee, Cruz tied the 2 collectively at seemingly each flip, telling audiences that “Colin Allred is Kamala Harris.”

Onstage Tuesday, Cruz congratulated Allred on a “hard-fought marketing campaign” and added, “To all those that didn’t help me, you’ve gotten my phrase that I’ll struggle for you, in your jobs, in your security and in your constitutional rights.”

Late within the marketing campaign, Cruz and his allied PACs launched a barrage of adverts accusing Allred of supporting laws that may permit males to make use of girls’s restrooms and boys to play in women’ sports activities — together with a spot that confirmed an grownup male soccer participant carrying an Allred jersey tackling a younger woman, which Cruz highlighted as his “favourite advert of the cycle.”

Democrats and LGBTQ+ advocacy teams criticized the assaults as peddling harmful and false narratives about transgender youth, and Allred rebutted along with his personal advert accusing Cruz of mischaracterizing his stance. However Cruz — and Republicans who ran related adverts across the nation — noticed the anti-transgender adverts as efficient, notably among the many average voters Allred was courting.

Additionally fueling Cruz’s win was his standing as one of the vital in style Republicans amongst conservative voters in a state the place GOP voters nonetheless outnumber Democrats. He ran on a message of expertise, having racked up a legislative file after 12 years within the Senate and because the high Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee.

In the meantime, Allred gave up a promising profession within the U.S. Home to run for Senate. His political future, as soon as vibrant, is now unclear.

Talking at his election watch get together, Allred thanked the Texas girls who spoke out in regards to the state’s abortion restrictions and helped his marketing campaign, together with girls whose well being have been jeopardized when their well being care was delayed because of the regulation.

“There are such a lot of nice Texas girls who informed their tales, and Aly and I’ll always remember them,” Allred mentioned, referring to his spouse, Aly Eber. “And we are going to by no means cease preventing to overturn this abortion ban right here in Texas.”

Cruz was prepared

The 2018 Senate race was a warning shot for Cruz. O’Rourke got here inside putting distance of flipping the seat, turning into a cultural phenomenon that attracted consideration — and donors — from across the nation. Republicans have been caught off guard by the problem, and Cruz’s historical past as much as the purpose as being one of many largest disruptors within the Senate made him weak. O’Rourke introduced in over $80 million to his marketing campaign effort, making the race the costliest within the historical past of the Senate.

This cycle, Cruz rallied donors early with warnings that they need to take nothing without any consideration. Cruz warned the state’s suburban growth might result in extra Democratic voters.

“Texas is a battlefield,” Cruz informed Texas delegates on the Republican Nationwide Conference this 12 months. “It’s straightforward to be complacent. One of many actual errors individuals make in politics is that they have a recency bias. They are saying properly, no matter issues have been lately, that’s what it’s going to be eternally.”

In response to O’Rourke’s record-breaking haul, Cruz doubled his fundraising from the 2018 cycle. He acquired an early begin, elevating over $30 million by the point Allred launched his Senate bid in Might 2023.

He additionally launched a reputational rebrand, attempting to melt his incendiary picture with an early media blitz highlighting his work with Democrats.

Because the race took form, Cruz hit the marketing campaign path with a message targeted on preserving Texas’ conservative values — he referred to as his marketing campaign bus tour “Hold Texas, Texas” — and framing the race as “a battle between sane and loopy.” In his stump speech, delivered at breweries, barbecue eating places and music halls across the state, Cruz solid Allred and the broader Democratic Occasion as having gone too far left on transgender rights, crucial race concept and different points on the coronary heart of the nation’s tradition wars.

Within the closing weeks he deployed a lineup of high-powered surrogates, rallying with former President Donald Trump in Austin and bringing a few of his GOP Senate colleagues onto the marketing campaign path forward of Election Day.

Cruz additionally benefited from his just about common title recognition amongst Republicans in Texas and across the nation — a bonus the little-known Allred has needed to battle all through the cycle.

Cruz first made a reputation for himself as a rabble-rouser within the Senate and cultivated the picture all through his time in workplace, usually clashing with the leaders of his personal get together. He grew to become identified for his spirited speeches each in entrance of the cameras and behind closed doorways within the Capitol, the place he might at instances be heard screaming from the halls.

He expanded his attain with the assistance of his thrice-weekly podcast syndicated by way of iHeartMedia to hundreds of thousands of listeners, and his 4 books on matters starting from his life story to his furor with the federal judiciary.

However Cruz’s fame additionally supplied Democrats a straightforward caricature to focus on. The Allred marketing campaign repeatedly attacked Cruz as a conservative superstar extra interested by cultivating his model than serving Texans. Allred alluded to Cruz’s transient journey to Cancún in the course of the 2021 winter storm Uri, labeling him as “the final word Me Man” who would go away the state throughout a pure catastrophe.

“Nobody is extra self-serving, extra disconnected from Texans’ wants,” Allred mentioned in a speech on the Texas Democratic Conference in June.

Allred additionally tied Cruz to Texas’ abortion restrictions, noting the senator’s previous statements opposing abortion. Amanda Zurawski and Kate Cox, two Texas girls who had care for his or her nonviable pregnancies delayed due to the state’s abortion legal guidelines, campaigned for Allred. After largely maintaining Harris’ marketing campaign out of his calculus, Allred joined the vice chairman at a Houston rally on reproductive rights.

Cruz deferred opining on the state’s abortion legal guidelines, saying it was as much as the state authorities to resolve whereas pointedly refusing to make clear whether or not he agrees with Texas’ lack of exceptions for pregnancies ensuing from rape or incest.

Cruz pushed again on the partisan accusations all through the marketing campaign, asserting he was able to concurrently being a right-wing fighter whereas additionally working throughout the aisle to get issues achieved. He touted over 100 legislative accomplishments as a senator, making efficacy a key side of his marketing campaign. He rebranded himself as a bipartisan dealmaker early within the cycle, saying it might exist in tandem along with his function as a conservative firebrand.

“It’s straightforward and possibly extra enjoyable to cowl the battles that I’ve waged in opposition to the Obama administration or the Biden administration, or [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer,” Cruz mentioned in April. “These could make for simple headlines, however usually ignored are actually [100] completely different items of laws that I’ve authored and handed into regulation in my time within the Senate.”

Allred dismissed the claims, stating that Cruz opposed most of the largest bipartisan payments of President Joe Biden’s time in workplace, together with the CHIPS and Science Act and the Infrastructure Funding and Jobs Acts, each of which introduced billions of {dollars} to Texas. Cruz additionally opposed an finally unsuccessful bipartisan Senate border deal negotiated by the White Home and Republican Sen. James Lankford, unbiased Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy. Allred supported all three payments.

Allred’s playbook

Allred’s largest weak spot for months was that nobody knew who he was. Regardless of three phrases within the U.S. Home, he had low title recognition exterior of his Dallas district or the halls of Congress. He was not one to pine for viral moments or change into a political model as was Cruz’s wont.

He spent closely to introduce himself to the state, investing over $31 million in tv adverts, in response to monitoring agency AdImpact. Nationwide Senate Democrat teams spent one other $15 million.

Allred proved to be one of many state’s most prolific fundraisers. He outraised Cruz each quarter of the 12 months and repeatedly broke O’Rourke’s fundraising data. Allred additionally led the state’s first coordinated marketing campaign for a Democratic Senate candidate in many years, consolidating assets up and down the ticket.

There have been different forces at play working in Allred’s favor. Till Biden dropped out of the race, few Democrats thought Allred had a practical shot of overcoming the president’s dismal approval scores in Texas. Polls confirmed Biden trailing Trump by a median of virtually 10 share factors by the point he nixed his reelection bid, reinforcing Democratic pessimism after a midterm cycle during which Gov. Greg Abbott had defeated O’Rourke by 11 factors. And whereas Allred supplied solely a tepid embrace of Harris because the nominee, the momentum started to shift in his favor as Harris narrowed Trump’s benefit within the state.

Allred additionally caught a break with Democrats’ powerful Senate map this 12 months. Senate Democrats recognized Texas as a high flip alternative largely as a result of they didn’t have any others and have been in search of methods to guard their 51-seat majority.

He touted work he had achieved with Republicans, incomes him the rating of twenty seventh most bipartisan member of Congress in 2023 by the Lugar Heart and Georgetown College. He was endorsed by each the pro-business U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO labor group in 2020 and 2022, although the chamber endorsed Cruz this 12 months.

Allred additionally capitalized on Cruz’s function in Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election, hoping to enchantment to conservative voters turned off by the episode. Former U.S. Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, Republicans who served on the Home committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, endorsed and campaigned for Allred.

Allred by no means absolutely escaped the shadow of O’Rourke, who famously barnstormed by way of all 254 counties in Texas and have become an web sensation along with his freewheeling, profanity-laden stump speeches.

He took a way more typical marketing campaign technique, prioritizing curated adverts and punctiliously choreographed appearances that didn’t lend themselves to the sorts of spontaneous moments that catapulted O’Rourke into political stardom.

Allred mentioned his technique was obligatory to maximise his message all through such a big state.

“We’ve acquired an incredible state and a large state, and final month, we have achieved 50 stops in 22 cities,” Allred mentioned in September. “We additionally need to have assets to ensure we talk within the largest media markets within the nation, and likewise in markets in locations which might be fully siloed from one another.”

Cruz laced into Allred for his understated marketing campaign technique, blasting him for “hiding in his basement” and sometimes taunting him for posting images that confirmed modestly attended marketing campaign occasions. However he additionally warned that the race was nonetheless “very, very harmful” for him, partially as a result of coastal Democratic donors have made “cash rain in from the sky.”

“Look, it is not sophisticated,” Cruz mentioned after a marketing campaign rally in August. “For those who’re a very partisan left-wing Democrat, after Donald Trump, there may be no person within the nation you wish to beat greater than me.”