Russia-Ukraine drawing South and North Korea troops unlikely to spike regional conflict

South and North Korea troops probably coming into the Russia-Ukraine struggle is unlikely to stoke a wider battle between the 2 Korean international locations, consultants mentioned.

South Korea is reportedly contemplating sending intelligence personnel to Ukraine, in response to Yonhap Information.

This comes after South Korea’s Protection Ministry advised NBC Information that North Korea had despatched as much as 12,000 troops to battle on Russia’s aspect.

Yonhap mentioned South Korea might deploy navy personnel from intelligence models, “who might analyze North Korean battlefield techniques or participate in interrogations of captured North Koreans.”

The U.S. on Wednesday confirmed that North Korean troops had been despatched to Russia.

Whereas South Korea has not publicly confirmed or denied plans to deploy personnel in Ukraine, the nation has reportedly warned that it could ship arms, relying on the extent of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

This could additionally mark a departure from Seoul’s long-held coverage of not supplying weapons to international locations in conflicts, South Korea President Yoon Seok Yeol reportedly mentioned.

Consultants advised CNBC that South Korea was unlikely to authorize the deployment of troops for fight in Ukraine.

“I don’t foresee the Yoon administration approving the deployment of troops for precise fight operations on Ukrainian soil,” mentioned Nah Liang Tuang, a analysis fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research.

Seoul deploying observers won’t be a major escalation, as Kyiv’s companions have noncombatant observers already in Ukraine, Nah mentioned.

If Seoul deploys navy personnel to assist Ukraine with intelligence, technical coaching, and even to assist interrogate North Korean prisoners of struggle, it could encourage Ukraine’s different allies to dispatch their very own trainers or navy assist specialists to help Ukraine.

“The messaging we’re seeing is probably going meant to discourage the precise deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine from Russia. We do not understand how that may play out, simply but,” mentioned Naoko Aoki, a political scientist at American coverage assume tank Rand.

Aoki mentioned that there was a risk of personnel from the 2 Korean international locations coming into contact ought to either side deploy them, which might “complicate the scenario considerably.” However that may depend upon how the North Korean troops are deployed, she added.

Nah mentioned that such an occasion might happen provided that North Korean troops penetrate Ukrainian defensive strains and encounter South Korean personnel embedded with Ukrainian models. “In such a case, South Korean troops could be capturing in self defence, thus limiting the character of such fight encounters.”

Such an encounter can have little impact politically, on condition that Moscow and Pyongyang have denied North Korean troops are being employed within the struggle.

Tensions on the peninsula have been rising in latest weeks, with North Korea blowing up connecting railways and roads on its aspect, after sending trash balloons into South Korea earlier this yr. It has additionally accused the South of sending drones carrying propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang.

Whereas tensions have risen, consultants counsel armed battle will not be on the horizon. “North Korea wouldn’t wish to battle a struggle on the Korean peninsula when a few of its troops are in Ukraine preventing another person’s struggle,” Rand’s Aoki mentioned.

Pyongyang’s aim in supporting Russia, she highlighted, is to attempt to deepen relations with Moscow in order that it could actually achieve what it wants from Russia, like info for superior weapons know-how, and fight expertise.

“Pyongyang judges that blowback from it is assist of Moscow won’t infect the Korean Peninsula,” RSIS’ Nah mentioned. “I might argue that Kim Jong Un sees his relationship with Vladimir Putin in a really transactional mild, whereas being positioned in a geostrategic silo unlinked with struggle prospects on the Korean Peninsula.”