Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: Who wins, and why?

The marquee matchup of the 2024 season kicks off from Bryant-Denny Stadium, as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 2 Georgia in a bombshell confrontation between ranked SEC rivals and nationwide title hopefuls in faculty soccer’s Week 5 motion on Saturday.

A month into his debut season, the sport represents by far Kalen DeBoer’s greatest check in his mission to switch Nick Saban, and a serious proving floor for him to persuade an unsure fanbase that he can uphold this system’s lofty commonplace in video games of this magnitude.

There’s loads of stress on Georgia, too. The favourite to win the nationwide title on the sportsbooks because the finish of final season, the crew misplaced its No. 1 rating after a sloppy win at Kentucky and this recreation is the primary of three large street assessments towards top-10 ranked competitors.

It’s additionally an opportunity for the Bulldogs to avenge a loss in final yr’s SEC Championship Sport by the hands of the Crimson Tide, in what turned Saban’s ultimate victory at Bama, spoiling UGA’s excellent season and a shot at what would have been a third-straight nationwide championship.

What can we count on from the matchup? Right here’s what it’s best to look ahead to as Georgia and Alabama face off in faculty soccer’s large Week 5 tilt, together with our up to date prediction for the sport.

Include the QB. Georgia’s protection has allowed simply 2 performs of 20-plus yards, however Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe will check that crew energy with a battery of scripted and improvised runs that can unfold issues out as DeBoer seems to translate his aggressive offense to the SEC, putting a heavy premium on Georgia’s potential to maintain him bottled up.

Milroe additionally ranks 1st nationally with 5 TD passes of 20 yards this season, dealing to a younger group of receivers who’ve the pace to problem the Bulldogs’ very good secondary. Georgia wants to shut down his escape routes to the skin, and take away a minimum of one dimension of his recreation.

Take a look at Bama’s secondary. There was some concern about this unit within the preseason after dropping 4 elite ball hawks, even drawing some concern from Saban in his position as a TV analyst. However to this point, the early returns from this versatile group recommend that coordinator Kane Wommack’s plans are working.

Alabama ranks 1st nationally by permitting simply 6.2 yards per passing try and is surrendering simply over 52 p.c completion from opposing passers.

However the competitors is about to get so much higher, as Carson Beck would be the greatest quarterback by far this unit goes up towards so far. It’s as much as a bunch of Georgia receivers who’re but to actually dominate to show they’ll problem Bama’s move D.

Run the ball. To date, Georgia’s dashing assault has not performed as much as expectations. The crew ranks simply 84th nationally by dashing for 145.7 yards per recreation and totaled solely 3.4 yards per carry towards Kentucky two weeks in the past.

Within the SEC title recreation a yr in the past, Georgia ran for two.5 yards per try, revealing then as now a discrepancy between the Bulldogs’ dashing capability and the Tide’s rotation up entrance towards the run.

The massive performs. Each these offenses have the capability to peel off some large gainers down the sector, whereas each defenses are geared up to stop precisely that. Georgia has the sting defensively in stopping explosive performs, however the Crimson Tide’s cadre of ability gamers will check their resolve.

Georgia has thrown 13 passes of 20-plus yards, 7 of 30-plus yards, and a pair of of 40-plus yards, whereas Alabama has the slight edge, having accomplished 11 throws of 20-plus yards, 6 passes of 30-plus yards, 4 throws of a minimum of 40 yards, and a pair of passes of fifty or extra.

On the bottom, the Tide has run 23 instances for 10-plus yards, 9 instances of a minimum of 20 yards, 5 for 30, 3 for 40, 2 for 50, and 1 for 60-plus yards. Georgia is at a slight drawback on large run performs, operating 13 instances for 10-plus yards, 3 instances for 20-plus, 2 for 30, and a pair of for 40-plus yards.

Defensively, the Bulldogs have allowed simply 9 runs of 10-plus yards and 1 try of 20-plus, whereas the Crimson Tide has surrendered 14 carries of 10-plus yards and a pair of of 20 or extra.

Georgia and Alabama are 2 of 30 groups in FBS but to permit a rush try of 30-plus yards this season.

Many analytical fashions are favoring the Crimson Tide at dwelling towards the Bulldogs.

That features the Faculty Soccer Energy Index, a pc prediction mannequin that makes use of information factors from each groups to simulate video games 20,000 instances to select winners.

Alabama is projected to win the sport within the majority 65.8 p.c of the pc’s up to date simulations.

That leaves Georgia because the anticipated winner within the remaining 34.2 p.c of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 6.2 factors higher than Georgia on the identical area, in keeping with the mannequin’s newest forecast.

Extra … Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: What the analytics say

Georgia is a 1.5 level favourite towards Alabama, in keeping with the strains at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the whole at 49.5 factors for the sport.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -118 and for Alabama at -102 to win outright.

Most bettors are siding with the Tide, too.

A strong majority of bets, 61 p.c, predict that Alabama will both win in an upset, or hold the sport inside a single level.

And the remaining 39 p.c of wagers are taking Georgia to win and canopy, in keeping with the most recent unfold consensus picks for the sport.

Video games of this magnitude, particularly within the SEC, are usually selected the strains of scrimmage.

For all of the dynamic quarterback play and the high-flying receivers, it nonetheless comes right down to who can push who round for longer.

Georgia has the benefit on the defensive position, and can throw a continuing rotation of our bodies on the Tide’s safety hoping to jostle Milroe out of his rhythm, permitting the secondary a bit extra time to match up towards Bama’s younger, speedy receivers.

And whereas the Bulldogs’ safety did look very out of kinds towards Kentucky, reducing into the crew’s dashing potential and receiver play, it may be a mistake to learn an excessive amount of into that recreation.

Georgia all the time has some early-season clunker that will get everybody apprehensive, solely to run by way of the remainder of their schedule. It gained’t run by way of Alabama, however the crew with the higher protection and quarterback normally wins these video games, and proper now, that’s nonetheless Georgia.

Faculty Soccer HQ picks …

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC community

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