Champions League mock draw: How the new format plays out

The UEFA Champions League is again, however not how we have ever seen it earlier than. Some modifications are easy, others are extra sophisticated, and some might sound a little bit of a thriller till we get to the knockout rounds in February.

So, what’s the new format? How might the draw play out? When will we get to know the fixtures?

We have mapped all of it out forward of the draw, which takes place at midday ET / 5 p.m. BST / 6 p.m. CET on Thursday.

How does the mock draw work?

The Champions League draw is now all about creating every workforce’s particular person fixture record. We have chosen six prime golf equipment and picked out their opponents, primarily based on the constraints of the draw and the pots.

With all 36 golf equipment in a single league desk, the competitors goes to look very completely different. Will the league part be aggressive? We have crunched the numbers to provide a league desk after seven of eight rounds to indicate how a lot motion there could possibly be on the eighth and closing matchday, which sees all 18 matches kick off on the similar time.

The ultimate desk routinely creates the attainable paths by way of the knockout rounds, and we’ll present how that works too.

The mock draw, schedule, outcomes and desk are purely illustrative and should not be taken as a prediction of what is really going to occur.

What’s the new Champions League format?

Let’s begin with the fundamentals. This season marks the primary time in 21 years that we have had a format change for Europe’s prime membership competitors. For the earlier 21 seasons, 32 groups certified and had been drawn into eight teams of 4. The highest two groups went by way of to the spherical of 16, with third dropping into the UEFA Cup/Europa League and fourth eradicated from Europe.

We now have 36 groups, however they will not be drawn into teams. As an alternative, now we have the Champions League “league part.”

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What is going to the brand new UEFA Champions League format appear like?

Dale Johnson explains how the brand new UEFA Champions League format will search for the 2024-25 season.

So, how does it work?

• Groups in positions 25 to 36 are eradicated in January
• The 16 groups in positions 9 by way of to 24 play within the knockout part playoffs, in February, to earn a spot within the spherical of 16
• The highest eight go straight by way of to the spherical of 16, performed in March

Additionally new for this 12 months: it is now not attainable to drop into the Europa League from the Champions League (or into the UEFA Convention League from the UEFA Europa League). When you’re out, you are out.

From the knockout part playoffs onwards, the competitors retains its two-legged format by way of to the semifinals, with a standard one-legged closing, however with restricted attracts — extra on that later.

What do the Champions League draw pots appear like?

Not a lot has modified in how the draw appears to be like on paper, as there are nonetheless 4 pots of groups that include 9 golf equipment reasonably than eight. However there are nonetheless some notable changes given the expanded subject.

How seeding has modified

Pot 1 used to deal with the holders of the Champions League and Europa League, plus the champions of the highest six home leagues. Pots 2 by way of 4 would then be ordered by energy primarily based on UEFA’s membership coefficient, which ranks golf equipment on efficiency in Europe over the earlier 5 seasons.

Now solely the Champions League titleholders will probably be routinely in Pot 1, all different positions will probably be on the UEFA membership coefficient.

Nevertheless, the brand new Champions League format means the pots themselves have much less relevance, as groups will probably be drawn to play two golf equipment from their very own pot. Underneath the outdated system, being in Pot 1 might provide you with a extra beneficiant draw, as you could not play a workforce from your personal pot within the group part.

OK, so how does the draw work?

Somewhat than putting groups into teams, the draw now creates the fixtures. Every membership will play eight video games, with two opponents drawn from every of the 4 pots. One match from every pot will probably be at residence, and the opposite away.

That is 36 groups and 36 distinctive fixture lists to be drawn.

There are two foremost rules this season:

• No membership can play one other workforce from their very own league (for instance, Arsenal can’t play Aston Villa).
• A membership can play not more than two groups from one nation (if Arsenal draw Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, they can not then play VfB Stuttgart)

The draw ceremony will probably be noticeably completely different, too. In earlier seasons, the fates of all 32 groups can be determined by a guide draw, with balls and pots for groups and teams, by a parade of former Champions League gamers. However the brand new format is so sophisticated that it could take over three hours and require 1,296 balls.

Here is the way it now works:

• A workforce will probably be drawn by an ex-player on stage (beginning with Pot 1 and ending with Pot 4)
• A pc will randomly choose that membership’s eight opponents (topic to the constraints of the draw), and decide which match is performed residence or away.

Pot place won’t be so essential, however they nonetheless have relevance as every will include a variety of high quality. The distribution of residence and away video games may even be essential given the vary of attainable opponents for every membership.

NB: Whereas the draw creates the fixture record, the order through which video games are performed won’t be revealed till Saturday.

Here is how our draw performed out for six chosen groups.

On this hypothetical, Arsenal arguably have the very best final result from the attainable Pot 1 opponents, going through RB Leipzig and Dortmund, however get a more durable project from Pot 2 with matches towards Atalanta and Atlético Madrid.

Liverpool can be happy with their fixture record too, with the sport towards Actual Madrid being scheduled for Anfield and Membership Brugge as an opponent from Pot 2.

Barcelona get the hardest draw on this simulation, going through the champions of England and Germany plus Bayern, Milan after which, from Pot 4, Aston Villa.

Will the league part be thrilling?

There have been some feedback that the league part could possibly be fairly boring, that there will be little to play for as the highest eight golf equipment will qualify on to the spherical of 16, and the following 16 will all go into the knockout part playoffs. We’re solely going to lose 12 groups out of 36 on the finish of the league part.

The league desk now we have put collectively after seven rounds reveals there ought to nonetheless be heaps at stake heading into the ultimate matchday. With solely 24 factors obtainable to every workforce, the desk will not be anyplace close to as unfold out as a home league; certainly, it is attainable for a membership to maneuver seven and even eight locations on matchday eight.

After seven rounds:

• Two golf equipment had been assured prime eight
• 17 golf equipment had been in competition for the six remaining prime eight spots
• 17 golf equipment had been assured minimal of a spot within the knockout part playoffs
• No membership was utterly locked within the knockout part playoffs
• 14 golf equipment had been vying for the final 5 spots (twentieth to twenty fourth) within the knockout part playoffs
• Solely three golf equipment (thirty fourth to thirty sixth) had been already eradicated

Considering the variety of matches and groups concerned, 15 factors will often be sufficient to complete within the prime eight, with 9 for a spot within the prime 24. There could possibly be seasons the place extra factors are required, and certainly in our mock some did miss out on 15 factors on account of inferior purpose distinction.

To attempt to make each recreation essential by way of to the ultimate day, UEFA has linked a membership’s closing league place to the knockout bracket, that means the place a membership finishes impacts their path. The upper you’re positioned, the simpler the route (primarily based on league rating) by way of to the ultimate. For example, the groups who end in first and second can’t play one another till the ultimate; those that are third and fourth would keep away from first and second till the semifinals, and so forth (try the knockout spherical chart to see how this falls into place.)

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Why the ultimate league part match ought to matter to most groups within the UCL

Dale Johnson explains why groups will probably be motivated to play within the closing league part match within the Champions League.

The query is how a lot these golf equipment within the center part will actually care about their closing putting. In fact, in the event that they outperform their UEFA coefficient rating they could get a extra beneficial path to go deeper into the match, however even that’s reliant on the relative efficiency of others (e.g. they could play a prime workforce who has had a below-par league part.)

In our desk after seven rounds, solely two golf equipment — Actual Madrid and Manchester Metropolis in first and second — had been assured their place within the spherical of 16, whereas the underside three had been out.

And that brings us to the mammoth closing matchday, when all 18 matches will probably be performed concurrently — just like the final day of the Premier League season.

Positions could possibly be altering each time a purpose goes in, from these key spots close to the highest of the league to the golf equipment making an attempt to hold onto, or drive their manner into the highest 24.

Here is our pattern (to not be seen as predictive) outcomes for matchday eight, and the way they affected the ultimate desk.

Two golf equipment misplaced their locations within the prime eight, with Liverpool’s defeat at Atalanta seeing them fall 4 locations into eleventh. Inter additionally missed out after drawing with Sturm Graz, dropping one place to ninth.

The beneficiaries had been Bayern Munich and AC Milan, with wins taking them into seventh and eighth. Regardless of getting 15 factors, Inter and Aston Villa missed out on the highest eight on purpose distinction.

Positional modifications could possibly be extra pronounced within the battle to sneak into the highest 24 — as fewer groups are doubtless be profitable matches. Certainly, victories for Atalanta, PSV Eindhoven at residence to Lille, and Girona towards PSG noticed all three climb 5 locations and make the knockout part playoffs, ending twenty first, twenty third and twenty fourth respectively. Brest, Celtic and Younger Boys all fell out of the highest 24 with final-day defeats.

When will the video games be performed?

UEFA plans to publish the order of the fixture record on Saturday. Golf equipment can’t play groups from Pot 1 within the consecutive matchdays 1 and a pair of or 7 and eight, to forestall a tough begin or finish. So, from our mock, Actual Madrid could not play Pot 1 groups PSG and Liverpool in these back-to-back weeks.

Kick-off instances will stay the identical, with two matches at 5.45 p.m. UK / 12.45 p.m. ET and the remainder at 8 p.m. UK / 3 p.m. ET. Nevertheless, on the ultimate day of the league part all 18 matches will start at 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET.

UEFA has expanded the footprint of the European calendar to cowl 10 midweeks, reasonably than the six it used to. The Champions League will take up eight matchdays, with the spare two used to present the Europa League and Convention League their very own standalone weeks. Solely the Champions League will play on the week of Sept. 17-19, with the Europa League taking Sept. 25-16 and the Convention League on the week of Dec. 19.

The Champions League league part will now end in January, reasonably than December, with six video games performed earlier than Christmas and the final two rounds on Jan. 21-22 and Jan. 29.

With the brand new format producing a number of Pot 1 fixtures, when in earlier seasons there would not be any in any respect, UEFA hopes to create a diffusion of “marquee” matches throughout the matchdays. Our mock draw confirmed how these might seem throughout matchdays and the way common they might be, with just one week not having a gathering of two of the modern-day powerhouses.

How do the knockout rounds and the bracket work?

UEFA used to carry attracts all through the knockout rounds, however the brand new tennis-style technique of utilizing the league rating to construct the bracket means simply two are required: one for the knockout part playoffs (Jan. 31), and one other for the spherical of 16 (Feb. 21) to finish the bracket.

There isn’t a nation safety, so as an illustration, Liverpool might play Aston Villa within the spherical of 16. In previous seasons, nation safety remained in place till the quarterfinals.

The energy of groups within the expanded match means some heavyweight groups are more likely to miss out on the highest eight, and that would create some blockbuster ties early within the knockout stage.

The primary draw creates the knockout part playoff fixtures, with every workforce having two attainable opponents.

Golf equipment ranked 9-16 play the second leg at residence. From this level, the place within the bracket is ready for these groups.

From the ultimate positions in our league desk, the next knockout part playoff ties are attainable.

On the finish of the league part the highest eight golf equipment will every have 4 attainable round-of-16 opponents, primarily based upon the construct of the knockout bracket. They’ll play the second leg at residence.

Taking our league desk, it could match collectively like this:

Actual Madrid (1) or Manchester Metropolis (2) would play:
Winners of one of many ties involving Paris Saint-Germain (17), AS Monaco (18), Benfica (15) and Sporting CP (16)

Barcelona (3) or Arsenal (4) would play:
Winners of one of many ties involving Stuttgart (19), Bologna (20), Juventus (13) and Atlético Madrid (14)

Bayer Leverkusen (5) or RB Leipzig (6) would play:
Winners of one of many ties involving Atalanta (21), FC Salzburg (22), Liverpool (11) and Borussia Dortmund (12)

Bayern Munich (7) or AC Milan (8) would play:
Winners of one of many ties involving Girona (23), PSV Eindhoven (24), Inter (9) and Aston Villa (10)