GCSE results 2024: The main trends in grades and entries

This yr’s GCSE outcomes are out. And, as all the time, we’ve crunched the numbers to convey you all of the information and figures that it’s essential know.

Grading in England is barely larger than final yr, and stays larger than pre-pandemic

Lots of the headlines about this yr’s A-Stage outcomes centered on a rise in high grades in comparison with final yr, and much more so when in comparison with pre-pandemic.

And at GCSE, there has additionally been a (very small) improve in high grades: they’re up from 22.4% of entries final yr to 22.6% this yr. And each figures are larger than pre-pandemic: in 2019, the proportion of entries graded 7 or above stood at 21.9%.

Having mentioned all that, grades this yr do stay broadly just like final yr and pre-pandemic: the variations are far smaller than the extra dramatic modifications to grading that occurred in 2020 and 2021, following the cancellation of public exams and the gradual return to nearer to pre-pandemic ranges.

In 2021, when grades have been at their highest, 30% of GCSEs acquired a grade 7 or above; this yr it was 22.6%.

The move charge in English and maths is down… however provided that you embrace entries from older pupils

If we take a look at entries from all college students in England, there’s a fall within the proportion of entries grades 4 or above in each English language and maths. In English language, the speed is down from 64.2% to 61.6%, and in maths from 61.0% to 59.6%.

This might sound alarming at first look, however the giant fall in English language charges is essentially pushed by a rise in resits (of which extra beneath). The charges for 16 yr olds are far more just like final yr: 71.6% vs 71.2% in English language and 72.3% vs 72% in maths. For entries from pupils aged 17 and older, the proportion attaining a grade 4 or above has dropped pretty dramatically in English language: from 25.9% final yr to twenty.9% this yr.

Grades in Wales and Northern Eire have fallen

Grading in England could also be broadly just like final yr, however that’s not the case in Wales or Northern Eire.

Whereas in England, grades final yr have been near pre-pandemic ranges, grades in Wales and Northern Eire remained larger. We noticed an analogous sample at A-Stage final week. That is partly as a result of {qualifications} will not be regulated by Ofqual, as in England, so completely different insurance policies across the return to pre-pandemic ranges have been utilized. It’s also the case that there are variations in GCSE content material, grading and modularity between England, Wales and Northern Eire. How comparable they really are is unclear (to us at the least).

This yr grades are comparable, if barely larger, to 2019 in England, Wales and Northern Eire (albeit larger by lower than 0.1 proportion factors in NI).

Topic degree variations in grading stay

Throughout nearly all topics, there was barely any change within the proportion of pupils awarded grades 9-4 this yr. Outcomes for 2024 (and 2023) have been largely in keeping with these in 2019.

The exceptions have been pc science, during which Ofqual had instructed boards to make changes to boost grades, and statistics, during which attainment in 2023 and 2024 remained beneath 2019 ranges. Entries in statistics have elevated 70% since 2019. The inference we make is that the latest cohorts had decrease prior attainment than the 2019 cohort.

At grades 9-7 we see an analogous sample with pc science and statistics.

We additionally see a rise in leads to French (2 proportion factors) and German (3.5 proportion factors), once more after Ofqual instructed boards to make an adjustment. Nonetheless, the outcomes of this have been much less obvious on the grade 4 borderline, though there was a 0.6 proportion level improve in each.

Grades in selective and impartial faculties stay excessive

By way of 9-7 grades, there was little change in outcomes for every centre sort between 2023 and 2024.

Taking the information revealed by Ofqual at face worth, secondary selective faculties have been the very best attaining, adopted by impartial faculties. Each improved by 1 proportion level in comparison with final yr. To some extent you’ll count on these faculties to enhance by a better margin in comparison with different faculties. Final yr, for instance, pupils at these faculties would have been disproportionately situated on the higher finish of the grade 6/7 boundary and thus extra more likely to profit from any nationwide uplift in efficiency.

There was a slight (1.5 proportion level) improve in attainment amongst faculties classifying themselves as free faculties. Whether or not that is pushed by present free faculties bettering or new faculties receiving outcomes for the primary time we are going to discover out in the end.

We wouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into these figures at this stage. The information for faculties will largely encompass 17 yr olds, whereas outcomes for faculties will largely encompass 16 yr olds. As well as, the classes will not be mutually unique. Many selective (grammar) faculties are academies, for instance. It could be higher to attend for the DfE statistical launch in October for evaluation by centre sort.

Regional variations stay… however they don’t inform the entire story

At regional degree, there have been barely any variations in outcomes at grades 9-7 in comparison with 2023.

Throughout all areas, outcomes throughout all areas have been broadly in keeping with these in 2019. The exception is London, the place attainment in 2024 was barely larger. London appeared to climate the Covid-19 storm higher than different areas, as we wrote this time final yr.

That mentioned, and as we wrote with Simon Burgess, the north/south divide at school efficiency is generally a distraction. A lot of the variation at school efficiency could be very native, between close by faculties.

Entries are up in most topics, however down in performing arts

Some topics, significantly statistics, have seen massive proportion will increase in entries this yr. And entries in simply two topics – drama and performing / expressive arts – are down. The truth that entries have elevated (nearly) throughout the board is essentially right down to a rise within the inhabitants of 16 yr olds.

However we must always keep in mind {that a} massive proportion improve doesn’t essentially imply an enormous improve in numbers. A number of of the topics with an enormous improve in entries nonetheless have a low variety of entries total.

Topics with each a comparatively excessive variety of entries and a comparatively giant improve in entries this yr embrace pc science, enterprise research and Spanish.

A better take a look at developments in entries to performing arts topics

Final yr, we highlighted the regular decline in entries to GCSEs in performing arts topics. And we’ve seen above that entries are down once more in some topics this yr. So let’s see what occurred in additional element:

Entries to drama stayed roughly the identical as final yr, regardless of the scale of the general GCSE cohort rising. Entries to performing and expressive arts declined barely once more. However, maybe surprisingly, entries to music elevated. And by a better proportion than improve within the measurement of the cohort.

It’s laborious to say whether or not this indicators a reversal within the long-term decline in entries to music at Key Stage 4, as there are a variety of common vocational and technical {qualifications} in performing arts topics which aren’t included right here. These are usually fairly frequent in music. However we be aware within the part on tech awards beneath that there was a drop in entries in arts, publishing and media, which incorporates music amongst many different. It could be the case that some faculties have switched again to GCSE somewhat than provide the reformed tech award. We’ll look into this later within the yr.

Re-sits in English and maths

We’ve seen that the general sizes of the re-sit English and maths cohorts have elevated since final yr. That is as anticipated: the share of 16-year-olds who acquired a grade 4 or higher final yr was decrease than the yr earlier than attributable to pandemic grading preparations.

With this cohort enlargement, we’d even have anticipated to see the next proportion of grades awarded a 4 or higher. That’s as a result of pupils who have been awarded beneath a grade 4 at age 16 throughout the pandemic years, when grading was extra beneficiant, would have been decrease attaining on common if judged by the identical requirements as those that achieved beneath a grade 4 at age 16 final yr, when pre-pandemic grading norms returned.

In maths, now we have seen a slight improve: 16.4% of scholars aged 17+ achieved a grade 4 final yr vs 17.4% this yr. However in English, there’s been a sizeable drop: from 25.9% final yr to twenty.9% this yr.

To dig into this, we will take a look at outcomes by age. Right here, we examine this yr with final yr, and with pre-pandemic:

The rise in maths attainment is essentially pushed by these aged 17. In English, outcomes truly fell amongst 17-year-olds, though the drop was larger for these aged 18 or older.

One query this chart poses is why outcomes for 17-year-olds in each topics (although significantly in English) aren’t extra just like 2019. At face worth this might recommend that that the standard of labor produced by 17-year-olds (relative to 16-year-olds) has fallen. Is that this actually the case?

The Nationwide Reference Check reveals a dip in efficiency in English, however a rise in maths

The Nationwide Reference Check (NRT) has not been round for that lengthy: it was first launched in 2017. It’s supposed to supply impartial proof about whether or not requirements in English and maths are bettering over time to assist decide whether or not GCSE outcomes ought to enhance.

That is completed by wanting on the outcomes from a set of English and maths exams which might be given to a pattern of 12 months 11 pupils within the spring earlier than their GCSEs. These outcomes ought to present if efficiency among the many present cohort is larger or decrease than common, and will doubtlessly be used as proof to regulate GCSE grade boundaries to mirror any variations.

In observe, Ofqual have been cautious about utilizing the check on this approach, and this yr didn’t make any changes to grade boundaries based mostly on the outcomes, regardless of a slight drop in attainment in English in comparison with 2023 (albeit with overlapping confidence intervals). It’s, maybe, honest to ask why the check remains to be being administered if it’s not for use for grade boundaries.

However the outcomes are nonetheless attention-grabbing in themselves.

We embrace outcomes for all years because the check was launched within the desk beneath, however the essential comparability is between 2017, the baseline yr, and this yr (highlighted on the desk).

This comparability reveals a fall in efficiency in English language, and a small improve in maths. Given the disruption brought about to this yr’s cohort by the pandemic, a fall in efficiency in each areas would maybe not be stunning.

The rise in maths and fall in English is, maybe, just a little surprising, provided that main college attainment measures present a fall in maths and comparable ranges in studying, in comparison with pre-pandemic.

The gender hole in efficiency has fallen barely

On common, feminine college students obtain larger grades at GCSE than male college students. However there have been some modifications to this gender hole in recent times.

Within the years main as much as the pandemic, the gender hole in high grades decreased barely: from 7.7 proportion factors in 2016 to six.5 in 2019. And this distinction was primarily pushed by male college students attaining larger grades: the proportion of entries from male college students receiving a 7 or above elevated from 17.6% in 2016 to 18.6% in 2019, whereas for feminine college students there was a small fall of 0.2 proportion factors over the identical interval.

In the course of the pandemic, the hole elevated once more to a peak of 9.0 proportion factors in 2021. Whereas the grades of each female and male college students elevated from 2020-22, the grades of feminine college students elevated extra sharply.

We would have anticipated to gender hole to fall again to 2019 ranges each final yr and this yr. However that hasn’t fairly been the case. It’s truly smaller than pre-pandemic: 5.6 proportion factors this yr in comparison with 6.5 in 2019. And it’s fallen very barely – by 0.2 proportion factors – since final yr.

Total, the proportion of high grades this yr is 0.8 proportion factors larger than pre-pandemic. However this isn’t evenly cut up between female and male college students: the proportion of entries graded 9-7 from male college students is 0.9 proportion factors larger than 2019, whereas from feminine college students it’s simply 0.4 proportion factors larger.

TES have written a considerate piece about what the explanations behind these modifications is likely to be, which is properly price a learn for anybody who needs to know extra concerning the gender hole.

Ends in New Tech Awards have been issued

This yr, leads to reformed Tech Awards have been issued for the primary time.

This covers a variety of vocational and technical {qualifications} at degree 2 and beneath studied each by Key Stage 4 pupils and post-16 college students.

Ofqual use the language of “strengthening” awards. Briefly, this appears to imply that pupils take their exterior assessments on the finish of the course, and that the exterior assessments contribute at the least 40% of the full marks of the qualification. Many awarding organisations have taken the chance to vary a number of the items inside {qualifications}.

Provided that (we predict) that the information revealed by Ofqual consists of each Key Stage 4 and post-16 college students, it’s not simple at this stage to evaluate the affect of the modifications on the attainment of both group.

Total, there appears to have been a slight drop in entry numbers, significantly in awards regarding leisure, journey and tourism and humanities, media and publishing.

As well as, attainment appears to have fallen barely. That is typical when {qualifications} are revised. Outcomes then enhance as academics grow to be accustomed to the brand new content material (the sawtooth impact). We illustrate this with a chart exhibiting attainment in awards with this commonest grading construction (akin to BTEC tech awards).

In flip, this might have a small impact on faculties’ Attainment 8 scores (extra particularly the open slots of Attainment 8), which we’ll keep watch over.

Simply to complete off, you will need to recognise achievements in vocational {qualifications} alongside GCSEs. However the way in which they’re described (e.g. with respect to their grading construction) makes evaluation very laborious to speak.

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