Inflation data points to small increase in benefits

Seniors, the time has come to metal yourselves for a modest improve in your Social Safety verify subsequent yr.

The annual COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, is more likely to be 2.6%, lower than the 2024 COLA of three.2%, which bumped up the typical month-to-month profit by greater than $50, and properly beneath the 8.7% improve in advantages acquired two years in the past.

The explanation: easing inflation, which is an effective factor general.

The crystal ball COLA estimate relies on inflation knowledge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics launched Wednesday, which confirmed shopper costs in July rose 2.9% over the prior yr, a tiny downtick from June’s 3% improve.

The COLA is calculated by averaging inflation knowledge for the third quarter of the yr — July, August, and September of 2024 — after which evaluating that determine with the identical knowledge from final yr primarily based on the Client Worth Index (CPI) for all city wage earners and clerical employees (CPI-W).

The Social Safety Administration is anticipated to announce the precise 2025 COLA in mid-October after the discharge of the September CPI knowledge.

We “anticipate a considerably decrease COLA for subsequent yr after the three.2% COLA in 2024,” Shannon Benton, govt director of the Senior Residents League, advised Yahoo Finance.

Learn extra: How one can discover out your 2024 Social Safety COLA improve

Seniors’ inflation nonetheless sticky

The wrench in all of it is that whereas general inflation is easing, the price of issues that gobble up a good portion of many seniors’ checks isn’t cooling on the similar tempo.

Costs for objects resembling shelter, electrical energy, hospital, and outpatient medical companies — main bills for hundreds of thousands of seniors — proceed to outpace the general charge of inflation.

A smaller COLA subsequent yr would pinch the greater than 70 million retired senior residents and disabled employees who’re nonetheless grappling with excessive costs.

“Although the speed of inflation has slowed significantly, we dwell in a courageous new world of inflated costs for issues retirees depend on resembling housing, hospital, and in-home healthcare that appear caught on excessive for now,” Mary Johnson, Social Safety and Medicare coverage analyst, advised Yahoo Finance.

“And all of us are battling the excessive value of retaining cool as temperatures set highs,” she added. “The value of electrical energy went up throughout the inflation years and hasn’t come down that a lot.”

Housing takes as much as 50% of budgets. The shelter index elevated 0.4% in July, up 5.1% yr over yr.

It’s fairly powerful for seniors to get a grip on their funds when the 2 largest bills — housing and healthcare — hold ticking up.

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Advantages fall quick for seniors

The issue is that Social Safety’s annual will increase haven’t all the time been sufficient, Benton stated. For instance, whereas there was a 5.9% COLA bump in 2022, inflation clocked in at 7% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022, in accordance with the CPI.

Between 2010 and 2024, Social Safety COLAs elevated advantages 3.9% per yr on common.

Within the Senior Residents League’s 2024 Retirement Survey, practically half of these surveyed stated they’re “getting by for now” however not assured in regards to the future. And greater than 1 / 4 reported they’re having hassle affording necessities.

For about half of seniors, Social Safety gives no less than half of their earnings, and for about 1 in 4 seniors, it accounts for no less than 90% of earnings.

With an anticipated improve of simply 2.6% subsequent yr, it will not be a lot simpler to make ends meet.

“The projected cost-of-living adjustment for Social Safety recipients is failing to maintain up with the precise rise in dwelling bills,” Benton added. “This leaves many retirees unable to keep up an inexpensive lifestyle.”

Learn the newest information on inflation:

Kerry Hannon is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. She is a profession and retirement strategist, and the writer of 14 books, together with “In Management at 50+: How one can Reach The New World of Work” and “By no means Too Previous To Get Wealthy.” Observe her on X @kerryhannon.

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